STAT Communications Ag Market News

No Change in Orange Forecast

WASHINGTON - Jun 10/15 - SNS -- The United States all orange forecast for the 2014-2015 season is 6.43 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5% from the 2013-2014 final utilization, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates for 2015.

The Florida all orange forecast, at 96.4 million boxes (4.34 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 8% from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 47.4 million boxes (2.13 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 11% last season's final utilization.

The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 49.0 million boxes (2.21 million tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5% from last season's final utilization. California and Texas orange production estimates were carried forward from the previous forecast.

Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2014-2015 season is 1.50 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, up 1% from the May forecast but down 4% from last season's final yield of 1.57 gallons per box. The non-Valencia portion is finalized at 1.42 gallons per box, down 7% from last season's yield. The Valencia portion is projected at 1.59 gallons, down 1% from last month's forecast and down 3% from last season's final yield of 1.64 gallons per box. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.

Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2013-2014 and
Forecasted June 1, 2015
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the
following year]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :     Utilized production boxes 1/      :  Utilized production ton equivalent
        Crop and State        :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :     2013-2014     :     2014-2015     :     2013-2014     :     2014-2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              :      ------- 1,000 boxes -------              ------- 1,000 tons ------
Oranges                       :
Early, mid, and Navel 2/      :
  California 3/ ..............:       38,700              40,000              1,548               1,600
  Florida ....................:       53,300              47,400              2,399               2,133
  Texas 3/ ...................:        1,400               1,800                 60                  77
                              :
  United States ..............:       93,400              89,200              4,007               3,810
                              :
Valencia                      :
  California 3/ ..............:       10,700              10,000                428                 400
  Florida ....................:       51,400              49,000              2,313               2,205
  Texas 3/ ...................:          376                 380                 16                  16
                              :
  United States ..............:       62,476              59,380              2,757               2,621
                              :
All                           :
  California 3/ ..............:       49,400              50,000              1,976               2,000
  Florida ....................:      104,700              96,400              4,712               4,338
  Texas 3/ ...................:        1,776               2,180                 76                  93
                              :
  United States ..............:      155,876             148,580              6,764               6,431
                              :
Grapefruit                    :
White                         :
  Florida ....................:        4,150               3,250                176                 138
                              :
Colored                       :
  Florida ....................:       11,500               9,700                489                 412
                              :
All                           :
  California 3/ ..............:        3,850               3,800                154                 152
  Florida ....................:       15,650              12,950                665                 550
  Texas 3/ ...................:        5,700               7,000                228                 280
                              :
  United States ..............:       25,200              23,750              1,047                 982
                              :
Tangerines and mandarins      :
Arizona 3/ 4/ ................:          200                 220                  8                   9
California 3/ 4/ .............:       14,700              16,000                588                 640
Florida ......................:        2,900               2,300                138                 109
                              :
United States ................:       17,800              18,520                734                 758
                              :
Lemons 3/                     :
Arizona ......................:        1,800               2,150                 72                  86
California ...................:       18,800              20,000                752                 800
                              :
United States ................:       20,600              22,150                824                 886
                              :
Tangelos                      :
Florida ......................:          880                 700                 40                  32
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80,
   Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in Arizona and California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80,
   tangelos-90.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida
   and Texas. Small quantities of tangerines in Texas and Temples in Florida.
3/ Estimates for current year carried forward from previous forecast.
4/ Includes tangelos and tangors.

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