SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jul 30/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT 07.30.2014:
Wheat is up 0-2 cents, Egypt is looking to buy wheat, lifting futures markets even though US wheat will likely be overlooked (Mpls Sept last trade 6.11 ¾, KC Sept 6.12 ¼)
Soybeans are 8-12 lower, market continues to chop around, needing some fresh news to give futures a clear direction (Nov last trade 10.85 ¾)
Corn is down 1-3 cents, following soybeans, US weather forecasts provide no concerns (Sept last trade 3.59)
Sunflowers are down 0-5 cents, bean oil follows soybean meal and soybean futures lower again this morning
Canola is 5-10 cents lower, following the soybean complex, higher crude prices may provide some support
*Minot Main Mandatory Maintenance*
The Minot Main Plant will be closed August 11th - 22nd for maintenance required for OSHA compliance. The closure will likely be during winter wheat harvest, so we will be taking winter wheat at our Minot West Plant (sunflower house on Valley Street). Thank you for your continued support and please call if you have any questions or concerns.
And we're seeing red again this morning as grain futures cannot catch a break. The wheat markets are again attempting higher trade but have been bouncing around either side of unchanged with row crop pressure pulling at any strength wheat can find on its own. Growing weather continues to be near ideal and that is the main factor that keeps these futures on edge and providing good reason for the technical selling we have been seeing this week. The US dollar continues its upward momentum on optimism about the US economy. Crude futures are higher this morning on expectations for a further decline in US stocks and US economic news. The grain markets are already talking about the release of the August USDA reports, scheduled for the 12th.
Wheat is up a penny at the moment on Egyptian demand, even though US wheat will most likely not get purchased as Egypt has been continuing to source a lot of their wheat from Russia. Speaking of Russia there have been some increased sanctions from the US and EU that could make it a little harder to export wheat. Sanctions have been placed on energy companies and banks that lend to the ag sector which could limit the amount of business that gets done by some ag companies, but we'll see. There is chatter about decreased acres in some areas around the world - South Africa planted more corn this year so wheat acres are down and Argentinean acres are expected to decline due to rainfall preventing some areas from getting planted.
There is really nothing to say about the soybean market right now. Prices are sagging again this morning and it seems that futures will be pretty choppy until the August 12th USDA reports (S&D and production) can provide this market with direction. Lower soybean meal and soybean oil prices are also putting pressure on canola futures and it looks like oilseeds in general will be lower on the day. The market knows a big crop is coming - now we're just wondering whether or not that crop has been factored into prices. Like I said - the USDA will help shed a lot more light on the soybean situation in a couple weeks.
As I mentioned above - decreased wheat acres in South Africa were a result of increased corn acres and what is expected to be a large corn crop. On the other side of that, though, the conflicts in Ukraine are expected to take a toll on production in some areas which could be pretty favorable news for the market as Ukraine provides some pretty tough competition for exports. For now corn futures are focused on US weather and that looks pretty favorable for large yields.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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