SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jul 2/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT 07.02.2014:
Wheat is down 1-4 cents, USDA acreage numbers continue to hang over the marketplace and push prices lower (Mpls Sept last trade 6.66 ¼, KC Sept 6.84 ½)
Soybeans are mixed, old crop a penny higher new crop down six cents, potential for a large US crop continues to weigh on prices (August last trade 13.29)
Corn is down 3-5 cents, market extends losses, strong crop ratings pull prices lower (Sept last trade 4.12)
Sunflowers are 5-10 lower, taking cue from lower soybean and soybean meal markets
Canola is down 30-40 cents, catching up with yesterday's losses since the market was closed, as well as following with today's lower prices
After today there will not be a morning wire until the 14th. My parents are moving to Hawaii so I'm headed back to the farm in Washington for one last, long visit for quite awhile. I wish you all a safe and happy Fourth of July holiday! The grain markets are not doing well again this morning and prices are drifting lower. At some point you think we'd see some buying interest pop up to help recoup some of these losses, perhaps that will happen tomorrow before the long weekend. Trade ends at noon tomorrow and markets do not open until Monday the 7th at 8:30 AM.
As I said above, USDA acreage numbers continue to weigh on wheat prices. There is still concern about the quality of the winter wheat crop left in the field due to recent, heavy rains. However, it seems that those quality concerns are well factored into prices and winter wheat futures are drifting lower with everything else. Reports are of great yields out of the Black Sea Region, which will not bode well for prices in the US because that means more global supplies and increased export competition. Durum prices have already begun backing off as the pop in cash prices resulted in A LOT of durum getting sold and mills getting those supplies that they need.
New crop soybeans are still feeling the pressure from expectations for a huge US crop. The drop in soybean futures is leading to lower soybean oil and soybean meal prices, as well as contributing to lower canola prices. In general, things are not very good for the oilseeds right now. There is chatter about the impact of recent rainfall and flood concerns but the market is checking weather forecast and seeing calls for drier weather so those concerns are being pushed to the side.
The corn market cannot catch a break, either, as prices are headed lower. High crop condition ratings and the potential for a big US crop result in lower prices. Additionally, news that China is ending its state stockpiling program (as early as next year) is unfavorable for demand. Contracts put in new lows yesterday and today looks to set some new lows, again, on some contract months. Chatter of frost in Brazil potentially damaging the crop could be viewed as slightly favorable but the market does not seem to be paying much attention to one frost.
Hopefully tomorrow will bring some buying interest before the long weekend and we can at least end the short week on a positive note.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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