SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 24/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 1-3 cents, following weakness in the corn and soybean markets, harvest is picking up in Southern Plains (Mpls July last trade 6.84 ¼, KC July 7.12)
Corn is 2-4 cents lower, crop conditions declined but remain at historically high levels, keeping prices under pressure (July last trade 4.42 ¼)
Soybeans are 8-11 lower, favorable crop weather and great crop conditions continue to weigh on prices (July last trade 13.57 ¾)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, following soybean futures lower, canola is lower as well and that doesn't help either
Canola is 5-10 lower, selling pressure spurred by lower soybean prices
Grains are lower across the board this morning as strong crop condition ratings spur some selling pressure, with corn and soybeans leading the way lower. The US dollar is lower this morning and crude prices are falling as well. For what it's worth - tensions between Russia and Ukraine are easing up as the two countries start to make nice. There is little fresh fundamental news around this morning that would help grain prices trade higher. Light cash grain movement in the corn and soybean markets should be helpful but it really is not doing much for prices. We can probably expect light trade for the balance of the week as the markets seem to really be waiting on the USDA's acreage and quarterly stocks reports to be released Monday.
The primary reason for lower wheat prices this morning seems to be falling row crop futures more than anything. However, increased harvest pressure coming out of the southern plains could have something to do with the lower prices this morning as well. Harvest is, according to yesterday's USDA weekly crop progress report, 33% complete for the US hard red winter wheat crop. That pace is just slightly ahead of the average pace. Spring wheat crop conditions declined by 1% to 71% good to excellent.
North Dakota crop ratings are the best in the country and it is no secret we have a heck of a crop coming this year. Our spring wheat ratings are 83% good to excellent, soybean ratings are at 85% good to excellent and corn ratings are at 85% good to excellent as well. It is not often we get to have the best rated crops in the country - so I wanted to make sure you guys are aware of where our crops are standing so far this year. Let's hope the weather continues to benefit us and we can reap the benefits of the wonderful crop that looks like is coming our way.
Soybeans saw crop conditions decline by 1% to 72% good to excellent this week. Minnesota and South Dakota saw pretty big condition declines (10% and 8%, respectively) due to heavy rainfall that has severely damaged the crop in spots. The market is not concerned, though, as the majority of the crop is still doing quite well. Old crop stocks are still very tight but the market seems to be shrugging off those reports. Sunflowers are, overall, 71% planted and ND flowers are 79% planted.
Corn crop condition ratings fell to 79% good to excellent but that rating is in line with what the market expected and still very high. The "I" states have great ratings (78-79% good to excellent) and they're the major corn makers so as long as things are going well there the market will not get too worried about conditions in Minnesota and South Dakota dropping off a bit. Ideas that corn futures are starting to get a bit oversold could provide some support as we move forward. However, the market knows there is a lot of corn coming and that will set a lower tone for prices as we head toward harvest.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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