SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 23/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is -1 to +4, stronger overnight but weakening into the morning session, spring wheat crop conditions expected to increase (Mpls July last trade 6.92 ½, KC July 7.24)
Soybeans are up 7-10 cents, technical buying interest spurred by reports of a stronger Chinese economy (July last trade 14.24)
Corn is 3-5 cents lower, market still expects large crop despite problem areas that are too saturated (July last trade 4.48 ¾)
Sunflowers are up 0-5 cents, soybean oil is following soybean futures strength, pulling sunflowers higher
Canola is up 10-15 cents, following soybean complex higher, if beans weaken then canola could lose strength as well
*Rail Performance Update*
Meetings and presentations with industry leaders have indicated that CP rail performance is not due to improve any time in the near future. This means that we could see slow railcar placements into and throughout harvest, giving us plenty of fresh challenges for making space for new crop grain. Rail placements did improve over the planting season and we were able to open up a lot of space. Currently, we have space available for grain and are offering free DP (as space allows on spring wheat and winter wheat) so that you are able to move your old crop grain out of the bin before harvest (without pricing it), enabling us to get it in and out of our system before harvest as well and keeping space available for new crop. The last thing we want is to be full two weeks into harvest and waiting weeks for railcars. Additionally, we will not be rushing to pile grain. As you are all well aware, grain does not have a long shelf life when it is subject to the elements in a pile. If we do not have consistent freight coming we will not pile grain that cannot get shipped in a timely manner. Long story short - if you're considering hauling grain before harvest please do so sooner rather than later so we have time to ship out old crop and are not sitting full before harvest starts. Please call with any questions. Thank you for your continued business and support!
The grain futures markets are mixed this morning. Soybeans were showing double digit gains earlier but those gains have relaxed and futures are up only about seven cents at the moment. Corn was following beans higher but futures have turned negative as soybean prices lost steam. Wheat markets are mixed with the winter wheat markets wanting to trade higher but spring wheat working its way lower on anticipation of strong crop conditions. Statistics Canada comes out on Friday with its principal field crops estimates and the USDA has its quarterly stocks report on the 30th.
The US winter wheat markets have some strength potentially coming from concerns about crop quality. Delayed harvest also helps keep prices supported. Spring wheat conditions, though, are expected to improve in this afternoon's report and that has spring wheat futures on the verge of turning lower. Soybean strength could also be lending help to wheat prices this morning and working to keep futures supported. A lower US dollar also lends support. Reports that Saudi Arabia bought some US wheat in its most recent purchase provides some support as well.
Soybeans are stronger this morning as technical buying boosts prices higher. Indications of a strengthening Chinese economy (which could mean increased demand) and concerns about rains and flooding in the western Midwest have renewed buying interest in soybean futures. Also, with recent rainfall we are expecting to see a decline in the crop conditions report to be released this afternoon. However, even a slight decline in crop conditions would still result in pretty strong crop ratings.
The corn market is less concerned about the flooding in the Midwest and is generally feeling that rains are still doing more good than harm. There is more rain in the forecast and hot weather is not expected through the end of the month, so in general weather is still viewed as pretty favorable and prices are reflecting that sentiment. Crop conditions are expected to decline in this afternoon's report and that may give us some strength in tonight or tomorrow's trade if that happens. As with soybeans, though, a small decline in crop condition ratings will still leave ratings at pretty high levels to start off with.
I'm going to apologize in advance if I am spotty with the morning updates this week. I'm flying solo in the marketing department until Friday and fielding phone calls while trying to get an email written can at times be problematic :) I will do my best - even if it is a little short! Thanks!
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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