SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 19/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 6-8 cents, concerns about the quality of the hard red winter wheat crop due to rains, some global demand (Mpls July last trade 7.04 ½, KC July 7.36 ¼)
Soybeans are 0-3 lower, market focuses on new crop potential despite better than expected export sales for the week (July last trade 14.08 ½)
Corn is up 2-4 cents, following higher wheat prices, some rivers forced to shut down due to recent rainfall (July last trade 4.45 ½)
Sunflowers are down 0-5 cents, bean oil slightly lower with falling soybean market, canola prices
Canola is off 5-10 cents, futures are lower, chopping around with soybean price action
*Rail Performance Update*
Meetings and presentations with industry leaders have indicated that CP rail performance is not due to improve any time in the near future. This means that we could see slow railcar placements into and throughout harvest, giving us plenty of fresh challenges for making space for new crop grain. Rail placements did improve over the planting season and we were able to open up a lot of space. Currently, we have space available for grain and are offering free DP (as space allows on spring wheat and winter wheat) so that you are able to move your old crop grain out of the bin before harvest (without pricing it), enabling us to get it in and out of our system before harvest as well and keeping space available for new crop. The last thing we want is to be full two weeks into harvest and waiting weeks for railcars. Additionally, we will not be rushing to pile grain. As you are all well aware, grain does not have a long shelf life when it is subject to the elements in a pile. If we do not have consistent freight coming we will not pile grain that cannot get shipped in a timely manner. Long story short - if you're considering hauling grain before harvest please do so sooner rather than later so we have time to ship out old crop and are not sitting full before harvest starts. Please call with any questions. Thank you for your continued business and support!
The US dollar is lower this morning and despite fresh concerns in Iraq, crude futures are a little lower this morning as well. There are reports of militants taking over the largest oil refinery in Iraq, keeping crude prices supported as the market worries about supply. Weekly export sales did not provide much reason for prices to trade higher - though soybeans may find support from better than expected numbers. Rainfall is still considered to be mostly favorable for crop development though the market is conceding that perhaps some areas are a bit too wet and the impact on crop quality is being noticed. The market seems to be shifting its attention, already, to the June 30th USDA report.
Quality damage to the US hard red winter wheat crop due to rainfall that is coming a couple months too late is working to keep wheat futures higher this morning. Reports of protein falling as harvest moves north is disappointing, but I suppose that a yield increase is happening as protein levels decrease. Additionally, there's some global demand around that keeps prices excited. Global stocks will remain a negative factor on the market, though, as the EU increased its production estimate and the Black Sea Region has little to worry about in regards to production. Weekly export sales came in at 380.8 thousand metric MT(TMT) in line with estimates that ranged from 300-550 TMT.
Tight old crop stocks and the continuation of old crop soybean sales keep soybean prices mildly supportive. Today, though, prices have been chopping around either side of unchanged. Weekly export sales came in at 383.70 TMT, well above estimates that ranged from -125-100 TMT. Fundamentally there is little to report as far as fresh news goes, so soybeans are likely drifting a little higher with the wheat and corn markets this morning.
Flooding in the western corn belt has the market concerned about crop quality in spots. Many, though, believe that the benefits of the rainfall outweigh the negatives. China is sitting on huge corn stocks and looking for a way to get rid of them. It has long been believed that China's excessive stocks and tight storage situation are a major factor in the reason for rejecting US corn containing the Syngenta MIR-162 GMO trait. Weekly export sales came in below expectations that ranged from 300-600 TMT at 187.9 TMT.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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