SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 11/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 3-5 cents, coming back from yesterday, quiet in front of this morning's USDA S&D report (Mpls July last trade 7.03 ½, KC July 7.29 ½)
Soybeans are down 1-3 cents, anticipating big new crop numbers in today's report, keeps market on edge (July last trade 14.62 ½)
Corn is up 1-3 cents, position evening before USDA report, there is little fundamental reason for corn prices to be pushed higher (July last trade 4.47 ½)
Sunflowers are 0-5 cents lower, taking cue from a lower soybean market, soybean oil follows along and pulls other oilseeds with
Canola is 0-5 lower, futures falling with soybean complex, mildly higher crude prices could provide some protection from losses
*Delayed Price*
We are currently offering FREE DP on new spring wheat and winter wheat deliveries, with grain to be priced by August 10th, 2014. Sunflowers currently have DP of 12 cents/month until July 31, 2014. Corn and soybeans are cash only. As always, DP is dependent on space available.
Grain futures are very quiet this morning as they anticipate the release of the USDA's monthly supply and demand report. The report is not expected to have any major market moving news but anything outside the realm of expectations always seems to shake things up. I've copied in a table below with market estimates. Russia and Ukraine are reportedly in talks, attempting to remedy their argument. The US dollar is lower this morning as a forecast for slower than expected global economic growth weighs on the market. Crude prices are up just a little as al-Qaida inspired attacks put futures on edge.
Below are the estimates for ending stocks for 2013-14 crop and 2014-15 crop for both the US and world. I figure pasting in the tables from Thompson-Reuters makes it a lot easier for you to see what the market is expecting than me typing it in. Numbers to note are the reduction in 2013-14 and 2014-15 soybean US ending stocks, the increase in US corn 2014-15 ending stocks and the large increase in global soybean stocks between this year and next year (hi-lighted in green).
U.S. Stockpiles Estimates For 2013-14 and 2014-15 (million bushels)
U.S. 2013-14 Stockpiles
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,157 953-1,279 1,146
Soybeans 127.0 120-139 130
Wheat 588.0 565-625 583
U.S. 2014-15 Stockpiles
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,746 1,405-2,282 1,726
Soybeans 322.0 245-364 330
Wheat 550.0 523-658 540
**
World Stockpiles 2013-2014
Average Range USDA May
Corn 168.3 167.5-169.0 168.4
Soybeans 66.8 65.0-68.0 67.0
Wheat 186.6 185.0-188.0 186.5
World Stockpiles 2014-2015
Average Range USDA May
Corn 182.1 179.0-183.5 181.7
Soybeans 82.5 80.0-84.0 82.2
Wheat 187.2 180.9-189.1 187.4
Grain trade today will likely be fairly quiet in front of the USDA report. Weather remains mostly favorable across the US and that will keep grain futures from finding too much strength as we trade our way through the spring and early summer. Corn and soybean markets are both becoming well aware that there is a large crop coming. Tight old crop soybean supplies may be the only hope we have right now for soybean futures, but that will only work to keep the inverse strong.
In wheat news there is some chattering about in the global marketplace. Australia released an estimate that showed a decline in wheat production as there are concerns of the development of El Nino which could dry out the crop. Russian dryness over the last month may have also impacted crop production and we may see drops in production estimates there as well. However, even with these small problems global supplies are expected to remain ample as we can see in USDA global ending stocks numbers.
Look for it to be a quiet day until about 11:00 AM when the USDA report is released. I do not expect it to be a big market mover unless there is some big surprise released. I guess I'd keep my eye on whether or not old crop soybean stocks are decreased as they are expected to be.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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