SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 5/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 1-8 cents, Chicago market getting sold off heavily, Mpls & KC shrugging off losses, tough export competition (Mpls July last trade 6.92 ½, KC July 7.16 ¾)
Soybeans are 6-9 cents lower, old crop demand is falling off, prices relaxing, new crop weather favorable (July last trade 14.74 ¼)
Corn is down 2-5 cents, rains to areas of the US help crop (ND being the exception), demand quiet (July last trade 4.53 ¾)
Sunflowers are 5-10 lower, bean oil falling with soybeans, canola and crude
Canola is down 10-20 cents, joining along in the selloff that we're experiencing today
*Delayed Price*
We are currently offering FREE DP on new spring wheat and winter wheat deliveries, with grain to be priced by August 10th, 2014. Sunflowers currently have DP of 12 cents/month until July 31, 2014. Corn and soybeans are cash only. As always, DP is dependent on space available.
I'm sorry there was not an update yesterday morning. It was a horrible day for technology for me as my computer decided that it was "corrupt" and it took me three hours before I was able to get it up and running. Technology is great, but only when it works! Weekly export sales were not anything surprising and are providing little support to grain futures this morning. Corn and bean markets are falling off while hard red winter wheat futures and spring wheat futures are a bit higher. The trade is looking for fresh, bullish news to help push prices higher but it's pretty tough to come by at the moment. Expectations for an increase in global cereal grain production is not helpful, either. The US dollar is higher this morning as negative European economic news hit the market. Crude prices are lower due to comfortable global supplies.
The Chicago soft red winter wheat futures are lower this morning off of news of an increase to the European crop due to favorable weather. Spring wheat and hard red winter wheat futures have worked their way higher after several days of losses. Tough export competition could limit gains in wheat markets but a general feeling of being oversold has prices due for some sort of a little correction. Weekly export sales were mostly new crop - indicating that demand for old crop US wheat is pretty sluggish. Sales came in at 343.4 thousand metric tonnnes (TMT), in line with estimates that ranged from 100-800 TMT. Egypt increased its maximum moisture level allowed in wheat imports back to 13.5% after pushing it down to 13.0% earlier this year. The decline in moisture put some wheat out of the marketplace and now that 13.5% moisture is now allowed again into Egypt there will be more countries competing for business. Russia increased its estimate for total grain production, which will limit what new crop prices can do.
Soybeans are lower this morning as indications that demand for old crop soybeans is relaxing are around. Export sales were for mostly new crop soybeans, with very little old crop being sold. Sales came in at 271.8 TMT, below estimates that ranged from 375-1150 TMT. Argentinean farmer sales are reportedly behind where they were at this time last year which could do with harvest going a little bit slower due to some weather interruptions. Canola prices are lower this morning and soybean meal and oil are falling as well - making for a weaker tone to the oilseeds in general.
Rains to the Midwest and many major US growing areas are considered mostly favorable. The exception, though, are rains to ND and MN, states that are already pretty well saturated. Weekly ethanol production increased this week over last week and old crop corn sales were pretty strong. It seems that new crop buyers are waiting to buy supplies are a large crop is expected and that could mean lower prices and better buys in the coming months. Sales for the week came in at 570.3 TMT, in line with estimates that ranged from 350-890 TMT. Mostly favorable weather forecasts will limit gains but oversold conditions should also help to limit losses.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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