SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 3/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image002.png@01CF4CBF.8F6C7CF0]
Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 3-6 cents, spring wheat planting progress pushes prices lower (Mpls July last trade 6.91 ¼, KC July 7.15 ¼)
Soybeans are down 9-12 cents, market continues seesaw price action, planting progress ahead of average pace (July last trade 14.89)
Corn is down 1-3 cents, initial crop ratings are high, indicating yield could be pretty good (July last trade 4.63 ½)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, bean oil is lower this morning with canola, crude and soybeans
Canola is 10-20 lower, selling pressure due to strong planting continues to weigh on canola futures
*Delayed Price*
We are currently offering FREE DP on new spring wheat and winter wheat deliveries, with grain to be priced by August 10th, 2014. Sunflowers currently have DP of 12 cents/month until July 31, 2014. Corn and soybeans are cash only. As always, DP is dependent on space available.
Grain futures are lower again this morning, seeing little support from yesterday's release of the weekly USDA crop conditions and planting progress report. Weather forecasts also remain mostly favorable across the US for crop development which will only continue to push prices lower. The US dollar is lower this morning, as are crude prices.
The USDA pegged spring wheat planting at 88% complete which has the US caught up with the five year average. North Dakota spring wheat planting is reportedly ahead of the five year average at 83% complete (5 year is 81%). However, with recent rainfall to ND one has to wonder how much more will get planted. Any US hard red winter wheat issues seem to be priced into the market for right now and unless things get much worse for the HRW crop I'm not sure that the market will find any support from a small harvest. There has been some global wheat business around but I haven't heard anything about the US capturing up any surprising or unexpected business. Also, there were some concerns about dryness in Russia sparking up but rainfall at the end of last week has eased those.
The USDA estimates barley planting at 93% complete which is 4% ahead of the five year average. Overall the crop is rated 67% good to excellent. North Dakota barley is estimated at 82% good to excellent, 5% ahead of the five year. ND barley is rated 72% good to excellent which is a really good start for crop ratings.
Soybean prices are falling this morning as the USDA pegged planting 8% ahead of the average pace at 78% planted. The market was expecting to see around 75% planted...with some estimating planting pace to be as high as 85% complete. North Dakota soybeans are estimated at 63% planted, which is right on pace with the five year average. Considering the acreage increase expected in ND and all the rain the state has seen..being on pace with the average is pretty good. Fast planting pace has prices backing off and volume is pretty light which lets a little selling pressure go a long way.
Sunflowers are reportedly 26% planted, behind the five year average of 33% planted. ND sunflowers are 29% planted..10% behind the five year average. We've had a lot of question about open market hi-oleic contracts. At this time we are not contracting additional acres. Once planting is complete our buyers will reassess what was planted versus their demand and we will know if we can add acres. If you seeded open market HO sun acres please let us know if you would like a call for a contract should they become available.
Initial corn crop ratings started out pretty high at 76% good to excellent (compared to last year's rating of 63% g/e at this time), indicating that we could see some pretty strong yields from the US corn crop this year. Planting progress is estimated at 95% complete. ND corn planting is 2% behind average pace at 86% complete. We'll see how progress goes in the eastern part of the state but it's more than likely that what didn't get seeded to corn will go to additional soybean acres. Weather forecasts also look pretty good which means that our good crop conditions will likely continue for the foreseeable future. Ukraine has experienced a similar planting and crop development season as the US has this year, making yield potential there pretty high as well. Export demand for old crop corn has quieted down which may also be weighing on futures.
Now that planting is wrapped up for many of you it is time to think about contracting new crop grain if you have not done so. With the way this growing season has started, global stocks and US/global weather it does not look like we will be experiencing high prices this fall. Of course, some change in government policy or the weather pattern could shake things up, but the way it stands now it looks like you could benefit from taking advantage of today's new crop prices if you are comfortable locking some in.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
[image003.jpg]
1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
