SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 2/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is 7-11 lower, futures continue their downward spiral due to ample global supply (Mpls July last trade 6.97 ¾, KC July 7.13)
Soybeans are down 11-13 cents, crop is off to a good start for the growing season, new crop down more than old (July last trade 14.85 ¾)
Corn is down 4-6 cents, planting 95% complete and weather is favorable for crop development (July last trade 4.61)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil market is quiet despite falling soybean, canola and crude prices
Canola is down 10-15 cents, selling pressure due to decent planting progress has futures on edge
Grain futures are starting the month off a lot like they finished the last one - lower. There's little unfavorable weather to speak of when you consider the US as a whole. Yes, we are wet here but the major corn and soybean growing areas are seeing a great start to the growing season and that is putting major pressure on prices. In the wheat markets we have the winter wheat markets dragging spring wheat lower. Crude prices are off a bit this morning but some global unrest could limit losses. The US dollar is higher this morning. Hearing a lot of "rain makes grain" talk.
As I mentioned above, falling winter wheat futures are contributing to lower spring wheat prices. Also, rapid planting over the week likely has spring wheat futures trading a little lower this morning. Thoughts that Canadian acres could see 10-20% go unplanted may provide some support as well - Canada, like the US, is seeing some soggy patches. Adequate global supply combined with favorable weather in Ukraine and Europe will keep prices from climbing much. There are ideas that Ukraine's harvest this year could beat last year's record crop size. It's possible that with planting wrapping up that we are seeing some post planting selling from farmers.
Soybeans are falling as the planting progress and crop development are coming along quite well so far. Estimates for planting progress are at 75-85% complete. Chatter about China auctioning off additional soybeans from state reserves may also be putting pressure on prices. As I've mentioned previously, the big question mark in the soybean market is whether or not we have enough supply domestically to carry us from old crop to new crop. The potential for a record crop in the US, though, will most definitely limit price increases this spring and summer.
Corn planting is expected to come in at 95% complete and first weekly crop ratings are to be reported this afternoon as well. Thanks to rains and a good spring, crop conditions are thought to come in pretty high to start. The western corn belt has received favorable rainfall and there is all sorts of chatter about a record crop this morning.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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