SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 8/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT:
Wheat is 1-3 higher, after having a lower overnight session things for wheat are picking up, likely finding support from poor winter wheat conditions (Mpls May last trade 7.24, KC May 7.42 ¼)
Soybeans are up 2-7 cents, old crop strongly higher due to tight supply and new crop follows steadily along (July last trade 14.52 ¾)
Corn is up 0-2 cents, quiet in front of tomorrow's USDA reports, market finds some technical strength (July last trade 5.07 ¼)
Sunflowers are 5-10 lower, bean oil is lower despite a pickup in the soybean, soybean meal and crude markets
Canola is down 5-10 cents, futures under selling pressure, following soybean oil
The US dollar is lower this morning, pretty sharply, while crude prices are up about 65 cents/barrel at the moment. A lower US dollar and higher crude prices are generally considered favorable for the grain futures markets, so this is nice to see. Grain futures finished the overnight session mostly lower as things drifted downward due to a lack of fresh, favorable news. The crop progress report that was scheduled to come out yesterday afternoon was delayed until this afternoon - so we'll see how far along spring is not later today. The USDA will release its updated S&D report tomorrow morning so trade could be fairly quiet in front of that. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain high which may provide some underlying support to futures.
US hard red winter wheat conditions dropped again in yesterday's crop conditions report, which could be part of the reason for higher wheat futures this morning. There is some rain in the forecast for areas of the HRW belt, but many major producing areas are expected to go without. Argentinean wheat production is expected to decline, resulting in Brazil seeking wheat from alternate sources. Other South American countries could have a tough time making up the production gap that Argentina will leave so it will be interesting to see where Brazil may have to source from.
Argentinean rains are delaying the harvest and movement of soybeans, delaying their availability to the global marketplace. Soybeans are completely lacking any fresh news and it looks like prices are climbing higher in anticipation of favorable news out of tomorrow's USDA S&D report. However, export news for soybeans has been very quiet which could limit some upward momentum. Sunflower and canola prices are lower at the moment but that could change if soybean prices can manage to pull soybean oil and canola futures higher.
The corn market is a bit higher this morning as it finds strength from expectations for the USDA to decrease some old crop stocks number. Weather forecasts look to improve for some areas of the corn belt which could ease some of the concerns about a late spring. This is what happens in a weather market - our attitude seems to change daily about what may happen regarding forecasts and planting and prices react accordingly. China improved increased corn imports from Brazil at a time when US exports to China are expected to decline significantly due to the unapproved MIR-162 GMO trait being present in some US corn shipments.
Look for it to be a fairly quiet pre-report trade day.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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