SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 4/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 9-12 cents, lack of buying interest, no fresh news have prices lower (Mpls May last trade 7.80 ¼, KC May 7.30 ½)
Soybeans are 1-4 lower, can't fight off pressure from lower wheat and corn markets (May last trade 14.71)
Corn is down 3-6 cents, market overbought, seeing some selling into the weekend (May last trade 4.94 ¼)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil is fairly quiet despite the drop in soybeans and canola prices
Canola is 10-20 lower, following the drop in all other futures markets, canola finds selling pressure
The US dollar is mixed this morning, starting out higher and since turning lower. Crude prices are up about 90 cents/barrel at the moment. Drama remains in the Black Sea Region as concerns about how Ukraine will find natural gas arise. Russia has been increasing the price of natural gas sold to cash strapped Ukraine, making Ukraine look for alternate sources of natural gas. Grain futures are lower this morning with wheat futures taking the worst hit. There's a lack of fresh, supportive news to help prices trade higher and due to that we are starting to see things drift lower.
A lack of buying interest combined with no fresh news and recent rainfall has wheat prices sliding lower in front of the weekend. There are concerns about whether recent rainfall to some of the US hard red winter wheat crop is enough to ease dryness problems - but the markets seem to be paying that no attention right now. I think the markets are just seeing that rain fell and that is what is spurring selling pressure today...and it isn't pretty!
Light buying interest working against the falling wheat and corn markets has soybeans chopping all over the place right now. They finished the overnight session higher, then traded lower on the open for a bit and have since worked their way a little higher again. A late spring could mean increased soybean acres which would be bad for soybean prices. The recent snowfall that fell across much of the Midwest (and is still moving across Wisconsin and Minnesota) does not make a good case for an early spring. And as promised - we are analyzing every weather event and forecast right now as we enter the weather market. Argentinean harvest is 10% complete right now.
Corn futures are choppy to lower ahead of the weekend and taking cue from a falling wheat market. As I've been saying this week - corn futures are overbought and some selling is bound to happen and that could be a little bit of what is happening today. Chinese corn rejections have totaled up to about a million metric MTdue to the fact that a certain GMO trait is yet to be approved for import. The panel set to approve the import of the trait met in March and gave no such approval, the next time they meet is June and the market is hoping to see the trait approved by then. China has large stockpiles of corn which is impacting how much more corn they're willing to own.
Have a great weekend and enjoy today's sunshine!
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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