SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 2/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 3-7 cents, fund selling, lack of fresh news push prices lower (Mpls May last trade 7.32 ¼, KC May 7.48 ½)
Soybeans are 3-5 higher, tight old crop supplies continue to give strength to soybean futures (May last trade 14.87)
Corn is down 1-3 cents, profit taking after supportive USDA report news runs its course (May last trade 5.05 ¾)
Sunflowers are up 5-10 cents, bean oil is working its way higher with stronger soybeans today, pulling sunflowers along for the ride
Canola is 10-15 cents higher, buying interest in the canola market follows along with soybean complex strength
A lack of significant fresh news has grain futures trading fairly quietly this morning as they look to old news for direction. The US dollar is higher this morning in anticipation of favorable employment data. Crude is lower due to anticipation of an increase in stocks. The USDA reports of Monday are now old news and the market is looking forward to the April 11th supply and demand report that will reflect the new acreage and stocks numbers. We're also pretty heavily focused on US spring weather forecasts. One meteorologist is calling for a warmer, wetter weather pattern to move across the Midwest and plains which could delay planting in areas.
There is really little new to talk about for the wheat markets this morning. That being the case, prices are trading lower due to profit taking hitting prices and pushing them lower. It seems that, for now, the market has factored dryness to the hard red winter wheat crop into prices. The wetter forecast for the US could be easing concerns about the poor condition of the US winter wheat crop - but how much irreversible damage has already been done? Additionally, it looks like recent buying interest boosting futures prices has made US wheat a bit too pricy for many buyers in the export market. So we could see some reduced demand moving forward. Australia is still calling for additional rains.
Old crop soybean futures are continuing to lead the way higher as we work to ration our tight supplies. Export sales for soybeans have been very strong over the past few months and current sales exceed current USDA estimates by so much that even a few cancellations wouldn't worry the marketplace a lot. Brazil is expected to plant more second crop soybeans versus corn this year due to more attractive soybean prices - which means that Brazil will continue to provide some stiff competition in the soybean export market as we move forward. Canola prices are higher this morning with the rising soybean complex.
Profit taking combined with a lack of supportive news has corn futures lower again this morning. It seems that the favorable news given to us Monday by the USDA has been factored into prices and now things are relaxing. Also, as I've mentioned previously, funds have been buying up corn futures and now they're just selling them off to make their accounts some money so this market was due for a correction at some point. The market seems to have some new perspective on acres almost daily and what will get seeded this spring. If spring starts happening we could see corn acres rise from the prospective plantings report and that seems to be the stance everyone is taking today, despite the call for wetter weather across the US.
Look for another mixed day today with wheat and corn having a tough time justifying higher prices.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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