SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 1/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is 3-5 lower, rain forecasts in Southern Plains have markets on edge (Mpls May last trade 7.41 ½, KC May 7.61 ¼)
Soybeans are up 14-24 cents, old crop higher on tight stocks reported by USDA, new crop gains not as strong, limited by acreage prospects (July last trade 14.54 ¾)
Corn is 8-10 higher, expectations for a slow start to spring due to cold weather, new crop acres not as high as thought (May last trade 5.11)
Sunflowers are up 10-20 cents, bean oil positing strong gains this morning with soybeans and soybean meal
Canola is 15-30 cents higher, stronger soybean complex spurs buying in canola futures
Grain futures are mostly higher this morning as buying interest has found its way into the corn and soybean markets after the favorable USDA reports. The wheat markets are struggling, though, as favorable forecasts over the Southern Plains could help out the dry winter wheat crop. The US dollar is lower this morning, as are crude prices. There are some signs of recovery for the Chinese economy which would spur hopes regarding demand. Now that the USDA reports are behind us these grain futures will really start to focus on spring weather and planting progress.
The USDA did not report any major market moving news for wheat futures in yesterday's reports. So the wheat markets are now trading more fundamental factors and focusing on weather. The US winter wheat crop is rated only 32% good to excellent with Kansas ratings seeing an increase by 4% to 25% poor to very poor. The US winter wheat crop is dry...however there are rains in the forecast which is the reason futures are seeing losses this morning. Australia is also receiving some timely rains right now, too. Gains in the corn and soybean markets could help limit losses but at the moment do not seem to be helping out much.
Tight old crop stocks have old crop soybean futures soaring higher. New crop bean futures are reluctantly following but acreage estimates will keep new crop futures in check. The US is going to produce a lot of soybeans this year. However, we also have a lot of stocks that we need to build back up. The market will also be keeping an eye on planting weather as we move forward. If we have a late spring and experience planting delays we could see more acres switch to soybeans. Canola futures are being bought up pretty heavily this morning as well and it looks like it will be a generally pretty good day for the grain futures markets.
Lower than expected old crop corn stocks combined with lower than expected new crop acreage estimates have corn futures pretty excited this morning. Additionally, funds threw more money at the corn market yesterday, buying up additional length and working to push prices higher. As I mentioned, a late spring and the potential for more soybeans means there's potential for a decline in corn acres if cold temperatures don't ease up and planting cannot begin. Exports, though, could quiet down with prices increasing.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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