SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Feb 24/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 4-6 cents, decrease in concerns about crop damage due to cold weather (Mpls May last trade 6.46, KC May 6.71)
Soybeans are 3-8 cents higher, speculative buying interest spurred by Brazilian crop estimate declines (May last trade 13.68 ¾)
Corn is down 3-5 cents, USDA projections for ending stocks to increase to over two billion bushels in the 2014-15 crop year (May last trade 4.53 ½)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil is very quiet this morning, keeping sunflower price movement unchanged
Canola is up 5-10 cents, futures are slightly higher with the soybean and soybean meal markets this morning
The US Dollar is higher this morning and crude futures are up about 20 cents/barrel at the moment. Wheat and corn futures are struggling this morning while soybean futures are finding some speculative support to push prices higher. The big global news is that Ukraine ousted its president, which may ease concerns about Ukrainian exports being halted. There is not a whole lot of fresh, exciting news to get grain futures motivated this morning.
As I mentioned above, Ukraine kicked out their president. Why does this matter for wheat prices in North Dakota? Well, futures found some support last week due to the unrest in Ukraine and the potential for exports to halt with the turmoil. However, now that the corrupt president is gone, we could see tensions ease and life resume somewhat back to normal. The thought was that if Ukraine couldn't export its wheat, that others in the market would be taking up some of that additional business. European wheat futures are on the defensive this morning after the news, which could also be weighing on US futures. A little closer to home, the marketplace is becoming less concerned about the impact of cold weather on the winter wheat crop...especially as spring approaches (though it may not feel like it...). Technical selling is likely pushing prices lower as well and it looks like we can expect wheat prices to relax this morning.
Soybeans are posting nearly double digit gains this morning as there is more strength potential in that market than corn and wheat today. Those with speculative positions are buying up soybean contracts due to some bullish news that is around. US soybean acres are an uncertainty and that has prices jumping higher. Additionally, Brazilian production estimates keep on declining which also adds fuel to soybean prices. However, domestically it is fairly tough to come by export bids for soybeans. This is because demand has shifted to South America.
USDA corn market projections from Friday are weighing on futures this morning. The USDA estimates that 2014-15 corn ending stocks will reach 2.1 billion bushels...even with a decline in US corn acres this year. That is a pretty hefty jump in ending stocks from this year's estimate. The market also seems to be focused on the amount of corn on farm...as there is a lot that still needs to move. Another US exporter said that it will not accept corn with Syngenta's MIR162 trait until it has been approved by China.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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