SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Feb 14/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:15 AM CDT:
Wheat is mixed, hard red winter wheat lower, spring wheat and soft white higher (Mpls May last trade 6.48 ½, KC May 6.63 ½)
Soybeans are 3-5 higher, backing off of highs, tight US bean supplies continue to push futures up (May last trade 13.33 ¾)
Corn is down 0-2 cents, strong export demand can't make up for the fact that the US has a lot of corn yet to be sold (May last trade 4.45 ½)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil movement is fairly quiet today
Canola is unchanged, futures are slightly higher today, rebounding a little after strong losses this week
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Grain markets are fairly quiet in front of the long weekend. There are no markets on Sunday night or Monday due to the President's Day holiday. Some technical buying could be pulling prices higher but other than that there is not a lot of exciting market news. The US dollar is lower and crude prices are down about 60 cents/barrel at the moment.
Wheat prices are struggling to maintain gains this morning. Global supplies are ample, which is only confirmed by recent chatter about India's record crop and an increase in Ukrainian stocks this year. However, from a technical standpoint, if futures make a strong close today that could be favorable for higher price action in wheat markets. Prices have faded off of their highs, though, and a stronger close could be tough to come by.
The market has not really gotten excited about the USDA baseline projections that were released yesterday. The projections were collected the last quarter of last year and the market feels they do not represent current market thoughts. In fact, the USDA switched only 1.5 million acres in the US from corn to soybeans and the market is anticipating a much larger switch than that. What is encouraging for prices, though, is that the USDA projection leaves US carryout fairly tight at 200 million bushels which is not a huge amount. Tight soybean supplies in the US means tight meal supplies as well which has resulted in a rally on the meal board and soybean futures as well.
Strong export demand simply cannot help carry the corn market higher. News that Bunge is rejecting Syngenta traits not approved for import to China may be keeping a lid on prices. Corn seems to be playing the role of follower to the wheat and soybean markets. Strong farmer selling combined with a lot of supply in the US will keep a lid on prices.
Look for a quiet finish to the week in front of the holiday weekend.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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