SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jan 28/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 0-2 cents, spring wheat struggles to find gains, winter wheat markets higher on cold weather concerns (Mpls March last trade 6.07, KC March 6.25 ¼)
Soybeans are 5-7 lower, Brazilian harvest reports good yields so far, weather in South America provides no threat (March last trade 12.81 ¼)
Corn is mixed, nearby contracts higher but deferred lower, optimism about old crop demand, sale reported by USDA (March last trade 4.32 ½)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil is quiet this morning, could be finding support from crude
Canola is up 0-5 cents, futures are slightly higher but falling soybeans could limit gains
The US dollar has turned lower and crude prices are shooting higher, up about $1.55/barrel at the moment. The big news today are hopes that the new farm bill could be passed as early as next week. Grain futures are trading off of little news and are sticking to narrow ranges this morning. Some demand news could be helping prices out a little but soybeans remain focused on South American crop production potential.
Cold temperatures, a lack of snow cover and the impact on the US winter wheat crop continue to support winter wheat futures. Kansas City futures are up about three cents and Chicago futures are about a nickel higher. Spring wheat futures are trying to get on board with higher prices but having a tough time doing so as Minneapolis futures are up only a fraction of a penny at the moment. News that Egypt bought some wheat hit the marketplace last night and it is thought that US wheat is competitively priced...however other global markets will be providing us with some stiff competition and I have yet to see who the business went to.
The US soybean market cannot catch a break and trade higher. Even the announcement of a sale of new crop US soybeans isn't enough to pull prices higher (though new crop futures are not experiencing as heavy of losses as old crop futures are). Reports out of South America are good harvest weather for Brazil and strong yields so far. Harvest is just in its beginning stages and the market will keep a close eye on how well the crop makes it to the market as South American logistics are typically pretty congested and slow during harvest. Crude futures are probably lending support to canola and soybean oil prices this morning as those futures markets are trading higher despite lower soybean and soybean meal futures.
An announcement by the USDA of an old crop corn sale may be lending corn futures some support. Also, ideas that cold weather could limit movement is supportive. However, frigid temperatures are expected to warm to cold temperatures in the next few days which may coax corn from the bin and into the marketplace. As new crop corn prices remain fairly low and below many breakeven points thoughts of acreage switches to soybeans remain high. Corn could see an acreage battle this spring which would be supportive for prices. US corn acres are expected to be lower this year but it would take something very drastic to get the market concerned about supply, especially when considering this year's large carryout estimate.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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