Ag Canada Expects 500,000 MT More Lentils

WINNIPEG - Jan 26/16 - SNS -- In its latest monthly review of Canadian lentils Agriculture Canada's market analysis branch in Winnipeg released its first forecast for the 2016-17 marketing year. It is important to recall that Agriculture Canada forecasts are not based on objective surveys should be considered unofficial.

It predicts lentil production this year will total 2.85 million MT from 1.8 million hectares, compared to 2.373 million MT from 1.597 million hectares last year.

Agriculture Canada forecasts exports will reach 2.2 million MT in 2016-17, compared to an estimated 2.4 million MT this season. Domestic use is forecast at 263,000 MT in the coming marketing year, versus 252,000 this season.

Season ending stocks are forecast to finish the 2015-16 marketing year at 100,000 MT, versus 365,000 last season. Agriculture Canada thinks the coming marketing year could finish with 500,000 MT of lentils on hand.

Agriculture Canada expects the average grower bid for all classes of lentils to range between $970 and $1000 MT in 2015-16. It thinks the season average bid will range between $765 and $795 MT in 2016-17.

Agriculture Canada said, "Prices for No.1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of $275 MT above the price of No.1 red lentils over the crop year, compared to a $135 MT premium in 2014-15."

Looking at the coming marketing year, Agriculture Canada added, "With the assumption of a more normal grade distribution (this year) and even with lower grade discounts, the overall lentil price is forecast to fall sharply from 2015-16."