SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Sep 29/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
Market Outlook as of 9:05 AM 09.29.2014:
Wheat is up 4-7 cents, there's no fundamental reason for the bounce, market oversold and finds buying interest (Mpls Dec last trade 5.38 ¾, KC Dec 5.68)
Soybeans are 7-9 higher, harvest weather turns slightly unfavorable, market bounces with wheat and corn (Nov last trade 9.19)
Corn is 1-3 higher, slow in harvest lets prices trade higher for a little while (Dec last trade 3.24 ¾)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil market is extremely quiet despite rise in soybean and soybean meal futures
Canola is up 10-15 cents, following beans, lower crude may limit gains
*Hi Oleic Sunflower Growers*
For those of you with a contract with us for HO Sunflowers (not a contract through ADM with delivery to CHS SunPrairie), CHS and Cargill have committed to buy 100% of production as Hi-Oleic. If you're interested in pricing please give us a call. Also, if you have open market Hi-Oleic sunflower acres and would like to get a HO sun contract please give us a call as they will likely be buying additional acres.
The following comic was sent to me by a broker at CHS Hedging and I figured it was pretty fitting for what we have been dealing with -
Grain futures are staging a mini rally today with no major fundamental changes or reasoning. There are chances of harvest delays due to forecast cool, wet weather across corn and soybean growing areas which is likely providing the higher prices this morning. Speculative buying interest and position evening ahead of tomorrow's NASS reports could be giving us a slight boost as well. The US dollar is higher this morning and crude prices are down about a dime per barrel.
Wheat is trading higher this morning and I can't quite figure out why - but we'll take it. Wheat futures are technically oversold and that could be giving the market a better reason to trade higher. However, globally prices keep dropping and US prices cannot rise much further without becoming uncompetitive in the global marketplace. Wheat harvest is pretty much wrapped up with a few areas straggling behind.
Chinese demand concerns are weighed on soybean futures in the overnight market, but since the market has staged a little rally. China has reportedly stopped approval on an unnamed GMO soybean trait which makes the market worried about imports. However, the trait is thought to not yet be commercialized so we shouldn't see the impact on the soybean market like we did when this happened with the corn market. Also, China needs soybeans and imports will remain strong. Tomorrow the NASS is expected to decrease the soybean stocks estimate but any gains from that will be short lived as the bottom line is that we have a big crop coming this year.
A potential slow in harvest pace due to a change in the weather is helping to boost corn prices a little this morning, despite the expected increase in the corn stocks estimate in tomorrow's report. Harvest is expected to be 20% complete, which is just behind average pace, in the USDA's weekly progress update this afternoon.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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