SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Sep 26/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image002.png@01CF4CBF.8F6C7CF0]
Market Outlook as of 8:15 AM CDT 09.26.2014:
Wheat is 1-5 lower, tried to start the overnight session higher but was pulled lower with the row crops (Mpls Dec last trade 5.34 ½, KC Dec 5.61)
Soybeans are down 7-9 cents, yield reports are continuing to come in at ridiculously high levels with rumors of 100+ bpa swirling around some areas (Nov last trade 9.14 ½)
Corn is 0-2 lower, pressure from all market participants keeps futures lower, yield reports high for corn as well (Dec last trade 3.25 ¼)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, bean oil falling with other bean complex futures markets
Canola is 5-10 lower, taking cue from lower soybeans, harvest pressure continues to add weight to futures
*Hi Oleic Sunflower Growers*
For those of you with a contract with us for HO Sunflowers (not a contract through ADM with delivery to CHS SunPrairie), CHS and Cargill have committed to buy 100% of production as Hi-Oleic. If you're interested in pricing please give us a call. Also, if you have open market Hi-Oleic sunflower acres and would like to get a HO sun contract please give us a call as they will likely be buying additional acres.
Grain futures markets are quietly lower ahead of the weekend. The US dollar is higher and crude prices are up about 20 cents/barrel at the moment. On Tuesday, NASS will release its Quarterly Stocks Report and Small Grains Summary, I'll go over report estimates and what the market is expecting for those reports on Monday. Every day I'm seeing emails from various brokers and buyers confirming high corn and soybean yields coming from harvest reports. It seems like this crop is just as big, if not bigger, than the market was expecting.
Right now seems like the time to sell some low quality durum - and from samples I've seen it looks like there's a lot of that around. The market is pretty desperate at this point for any type of durum in general. Logistics and supply of good quality durum are elevating prices. Supplies of milling quality durum will be limited from this year's crop but we need to keep in mind that there is still a lot of last year's durum from Canada that wants to move south. If the freight situation were to improve we would probably see durum prices relax a little. However, the availability of milling quality durum will keep prices supported as well and the market needs time to assess this year's crop.
Wheat futures are slip sliding lower again this morning after trying to trade higher in the overnight session. Pressure from falling row crops is enough to pull wheat futures lower. News from the International Grains Council (IGC) increasing global wheat production could also be weighing on prices. Brazilian harvest is reportedly being delayed by rains that could be impacting crop quality.
A soybean sale to China was announced yesterday and US exports are really looking pretty good right now. However, the market does not seem to care as all it can focus on are large harvest yield reports. Basis is weakening as well with the seasonal increase in soybean movement. The IGC also increased its global soybean production estimate, which isn't really a surprise given the large South American and US crops.
Speaking of the IGC...they also increased their global corn production estimates. Corn futures keep sliding lower in fairly quiet trade. There is not any news to push futures higher and without it they just continue to fall.
I wish I had something GOOD to say about these grain markets because it really isn't fun to sound like a Negative Nancy all the time. However, it will be tough for grain futures to stage a rebound through harvest. Perhaps once the crop is tucked away in the bin futures can start to recover and find support levels.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
