SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Sep 24/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:25 AM CDT 09.24.2014:
Wheat is 7-10 higher, there's no fundamental reason or fresh news, I think wheat just needed to take a breather and trade higher (Mpls Dec last trade 5.43 ½, KC Dec 5.71 ¼)
Soybeans are unchanged, futures bouncing around both sides of unchanged, big crop potential continues to limit upward mobility (Nov last trade 9.37 ½)
Corn is 0-2 higher, trying to stage a small "rally", US sale to an "unknown" destination is encouraging (Dec last trade 3.26 ¼)
Sunflowers are up 0-5 cents, bean oil higher, likely the reason for higher soybean futures, pulls sunflowers along
Canola is 0-5 higher, taking cue from soybeans and soybean oil, lower crude futures limit gains
Grain futures are higher this morning, a refreshing sight after the terrible price action we have seen over the past month. Hopefully this means we are beginning to see the downward price movement let up and things won't be quite so ugly. Perhaps I'm being a little too optimistic, but it's refreshing to see green on my screen this morning instead of red. The US dollar is higher today and crude prices are lower as the market worries about demand. Generally, a higher dollar and lower crude prices are not favorable for higher grain prices but the futures markets don't seem to mind trading higher anyway. Some wetter forecasts for next week could delay harvest activity for corn and soybeans, which could be part of the reason for today's higher prices in those markets.
Wheat prices are rallying pretty well this morning and there is really no fresh fundamental news for the spike. Perhaps wheat futures finally found their lows and we're bouncing back? That could be a little overly optimistic on my part but it's a nice thought. News from Russia is that wheat harvest is nearly complete and yields are higher than last year, which will likely keep Russian prices low and them a big competitor for global business.
Reports of higher soybean yields in China due to improving farming technologies are hitting the soybean market today. Also news that China sold off very little of their soybeans in their auction this week, signaling that demand could be weak amongst processors there and making the US market a little nervous. It seems the US market, though, is focused more on a potential harvest delay for rain that's in the forecast for next week and prices are trading marginally higher. Soybean oil is strengthening again today which may be pulling reluctant soybean futures along for the ride.
A corn sale to an unknown destination could be slightly supportive for futures as the corn market has been desperate to hear demand news lately, but we'll need more to get prices really excited. Russian corn yields are reportedly better than last year but early results out of Ukraine are calling for less than what was expected. The US futures market is seeing December corn futures bounce off of the $3.25 mark and hopefully we have found a nearby support level.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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