SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Sep 16/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:15 AM CDT 09.16.2014:
Wheat is down 1-4 cents, after starting stronger in the overnight session wheat has weakened, having a tough time finding stable ground (Mpls Dec last trade 5.69 ½, KC Dec 5.87 ¾)
Soybeans are 6-8 lower, giving back yesterday's gains, market knows a big crop is coming and any nearby frost threats are gone (Nov last trade 9.83 ¾)
Corn is down 0-2 cents, crop is slightly behind the average pace, harvest putting pressure on prices (Dec last trade 3.40 ¾)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil is not doing much this morning despite the drop in soybean and soybean meal futures
Canola is 0-5 lower, taking cue from a lower soybean complex
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Grain futures started out higher in the overnight session and carried those gains into the beginning of the day session. However, those gains have turned to losses as the session has progressed and grain futures are continuing their recent trend. A lack of cold weather threat has corn and soybean futures drifting lower. Some favorable news was from the FSA who released lower acreage estimates than what NASS has been reporting off of...meaning we could see some decreases in harvested acreage estimates this fall. The FSA numbers are preliminary, though, so there's no need to get very worked up about the estimates. The US dollar is lower this morning and crude prices are about 50 cents/barrel higher.
The USDA pegged spring wheat harvest at 74% complete in its weekly crop progress report, showing pretty decent progress for the week considering last week was at 16%. With uneventful weather we could see spring wheat harvest pretty well wrapped up, with only a few problem areas straggling behind. Harvest is still behind average pace, though, as the five year is 86% complete at this time of year for US harvest. Winter wheat planting is on pace at 12% complete. Acres are expected to increase this year as timely rainfall helped ease soil dryness in many major growing areas. In global news, Australia increased their global wheat production estimate, which is probably to be expected given recent increases in USDA estimates. Egypt is looking for some wheat but will likely pass on any from the US as our prices are higher than others in the global marketplace.
There are already talks of increased US soybean acres next spring, especially in major corn and soybean growing areas where corn is not penciling out so well on budget sheets at the moment. The FSA increased the amount of planted and failed soybean acres, which could result in NASS reducing their harvested acreage estimate. US soybean crop ratings remained unchanged this week at 72% good to excellent.
Speaking of crop ratings, the US corn crop was left unchanged at 74% good to excellent but the crop remains slightly behind average pace when it comes to maturity. Harvest is putting pressure on futures prices and will continue to do so in the coming months. As with soybeans, the FSA increased its planted and failed corn acreage estimates.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
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