SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Aug 28/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:55 AM CDT 08.28.2014:
Wheat is up 8-10 cents, Russian troops enter Ukraine and make the wheat market nervous (Mpls Sept last trade 6.20 ¾, KC Sept 6.37)
Soybeans are 3-5 higher, some concerns about rains, early yields high (Nov last trade 10.26 ¾)
Corn is 2-4 higher, following wheat strength due to concerns about Black Sea Region exports (Sept last trade 3.58 ¼)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil movement pretty quiet with slightly higher soybean prices
Canola is up 5-10 cents, market keeps correcting higher
I'm getting a pretty late start this morning but I had a couple things I wanted to share so I'm doing my best to at least get something out to you. First off are a couple of articles from the Farm Journal online (AgWeb Daily) that I thought were worth sharing. The first is about the future of grain prices this year and next, the second is regarding farm income. I'm sure many of you subscribe to Farm Journal and have already seen these but I wanted to pass them along.
http://www.agweb.com/article/outlook_a_long_hard_grind_NAA_Bob_Utterback/?smartid=ZZZZZZFZ11Z2221Z2ZZZZZZZZ2000011382712ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ&spMailingID=46835925&spUserID=Nzc4Nzk0ODk5NTAS1&spJobID=503490001&spReportId=NTAzNDkwMDAxS0
http://links.mkt1447.com/ctt?kn=28&ms=NDY4MzU5MjUS1&r=Nzc4Nzk0ODk5NTAS1&b=0&j=NTAzNDkwMDAxS0&mt=1&rt=0
The "A Long Hard Grind" article discusses some new crop yield numbers for corn and soybeans out of the US delta region. Mississippi yields are being reported at 75-90 bushels per acre for soybeans and Louisiana yields range from 65-100 bpa. Corn yields range from 170-190 bpa, with some states seeing yields 50-60 bpa higher than the five year average. Needless to say, some areas are going to have a huge crop coming and price movement is going to reflect that. Additionally, US soybean acres are forecast to increase for 2015 and if there are not any major global production issues moving forward, lower prices could be here to stay for awhile. Also concerning are surveys indicating that only 40% of the US 2014 corn crop has been priced, meaning that a lot of cash grain will be moving at harvest and probably again next spring when crop moves from the bin.
Wheat futures are shooting higher as fresh news comes from Russia and Ukraine. There are reportedly Russian troops entering Ukraine, near a minor export facility, creating worries about export interruption and providing some support to US wheat futures. Crop quality in Europe and the US also give futures reason to trade higher.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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