SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Aug 20/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT 08.20.2014:
Wheat is 1-3 lower, following corn and soybean, abundance of global supply and looming US harvest (Mpls Sept last trade 6.15 ½, KC Sept 6.24 ¾)
Soybeans are down 6-8 cents, overall results from the plot tour are good, indicating strong yields (Nov last trade 10.46)
Corn is 4-6 cents lower, better yields found than last year's on crop tour but some are below current USDA estimates (Sept last trade 3.57 ¾)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil is slightly lower this morning which could pull sunflowers down too
Canola is down 10-15 cents, futures selling off a little bit as harvest is thinking about starting up
The Minot Main facility is back up and running. Winter wheat will continue to go to the West Facility on Valley Street for now at 5.0 or less VOM.
*Attention Barley Growers*
Rahr has approved a product to regulate insect growth in your barley. Diacon-D can be applied easily to your barley to prevent larvae from turning into live bugs, overtaking your barley in the bin. CHS SunPrairie and Dakota Agronomy Partners have Diacon-D on hand for those who are interested. Please let us know if you're interested or if you would like more information. Thank you!
Markets are mostly lower this morning with wheat futures trying to trade higher but struggling to do so. Talks will begin shortly with the end result hoping to be a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian/Russian conflict which could work to take that risk premium out of futures prices. Beneficial rains fell to corn and soybean growing areas overnight and more is in the forecast, giving the row crops more reason to trade lower.
The Ukrainian Prime Minister was reportedly misunderstood when he said that up to 15% of Ukraine's total output was impacted by the conflict with Russia - apparently he was referencing only 15% of the areas impacted by the fighting would see interruptions to grain which greatly reduces the amount of grain lost to the marketplace. However, news that Ukrainian flour millers have asked for a halt to milling wheat exports due to concerns about supplies could be favorable. A big Russian crop will limit gains, though.
There are some mixed pod count results coming out of the ProFarmer tour for soybeans. Some areas are finding pod counts slightly lower than last year's and others are finding pod counts much higher than last year. Even with a slightly reduced yield in areas there will still be a huge soybean crop just for the fact that acres have increased substantially. Soybeans are seeing double digit losses this morning as they deal with ideal growing conditions and timely rains.
Corn futures are struggling with big yield numbers from the ProFamrer tour as well. Some yields are coming in less than current USDA estimates but are still above what was found last year. Nebraska saw a yield estimate of 163.7 bpa, which is about 10 bpa below the USDA estimate but above last year. Indiana, on the other hand, is seeing huge yields of 185 bpa reported from the tour. Illinois is on the tour route today and big yields are expected so the market will be keeping an eye on what is reported from there.
I will be out for the balance of the week so there will not be morning updates.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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