SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Aug 11/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:05 AM CDT:
Wheat is 3-5 lower, US wheat not competitive in global marketplace, technical selling continuing from Friday pushes prices lower (Mpls Sept last trade 6.16, KC Sept 6.24)
Soybeans are 0-2 higher, new crop being pulled higher by sharp gains in old crop futures, US crop prospects will limit gains (Nov last trade 10.86 ½)
Corn is up 0-2 cents, technical buying and some fresh export demand let futures drift a little bit higher (Sept last trade 3.54)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil movement fairly quiet, could start to turn higher with soybeans and soybean meal
Canola is unchanged, futures trade fairly uneventful at the moment, look to soybeans and crude for direction
*Minot Main Mandatory Maintenance - - DATE CHANGE*
Work is going ahead of schedule so we have a change in our closure dates. The Minot Main Plant is closed for maintenance required for OSHA compliance with plans to re-open the week of the 18th. We still plan to take winter wheat at our Minot West Plant (sunflower house on Valley Street). Thank you for your continued support and please call if you have any questions or concerns.
Wheat futures are the negative Nancy of the futures markets this morning as continued pressure from Friday's selloff hits the markets today. Corn and soybeans are only slightly higher this morning and it seems that action in the futures markets will be pretty quiet ahead of the USDA reports to be released tomorrow morning. Crop conditions are expected to be steady to higher in this afternoon's weekly crop progress and conditions update. There were some rains to growing areas over the weekend which may limit any gains in corn and soybean markets.
An absence of fresh excitement out of Russia and Ukraine has the wheat markets drifting lower. An increase in tensions would make US wheat futures optimistic about exports slowing out of the Black Sea Region, but Russia has instead backed its troops away from the Ukrainian border and that has prices drifting lower. Ukraine is reportedly exporting grain at a rapid pace, some say it's due to the large crop and others say the rapid exports are due to farmers needing to sell grain to finance next year's crop as borrowing terms from banks have become tougher. Either way, the abundance of Ukrainian wheat is not so great for US wheat as it makes us a bit less competitive in the global marketplace. European crop quality is still a concern but the market is paying no attention as for now.
Soybean futures have been bouncing around either side of unchanged this morning. Weather is good for the crop but not so good for futures prices. Old crop soybean futures are soaring higher this morning as stocks are very tight, and those gains are working to pull new crop futures higher despite ideas that the USDA is going to release estimates for a record US soybean crop tomorrow. A new crop sale to China announced this morning could be providing some support for prices as well.
Technical buying coupled with some export demand from Israel are working to push corn futures a little higher this morning. Dryness in China could be impacting the corn crop there and will need to be watched. Farmer selling is pretty slow as prices have dropped off pretty significantly. There are indications that we may not hear the verdict on the 2014 renewable fuels standard until near the end of the year. Above normal precipitation is called for the corn belt in the long term forecast and today's crop conditions are expected to be reported at unchanged/higher.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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