SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Aug 5/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:55 AM CDT 08.05.2014:
Wheat is 2-4 lower, little fundamental reason for wheat to trade higher, looking to corn and soybeans for direction (Mpls Sept last trade 6.20 ½, KC Sept 6.35)
Soybeans are 18-20 lower, market expected to see decline in crop ratings, they held steady and rain is falling over some areas of the Midwest (Nov last trade 10.59 ½)
Corn is down 4-6 cents, crop ratings fell as expected at this point in crop development, large crop still expected (Sept last trade 3.54 ½)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, falling with bean oil, bean meal and soybeans, it will be a lower day for oilseeds in general
Canola is 5-10 lower, taking cue from the soybean complex and lower crude oil prices
*Minot Main Mandatory Maintenance*
The Minot Main Plant will be closed August 11th - 22nd for maintenance required for OSHA compliance. The closure will likely be during winter wheat harvest, so we will be taking winter wheat at our Minot West Plant (sunflower house on Valley Street). Thank you for your continued support and please call if you have any questions or concerns.
Grain futures are mostly lower this morning with wheat finding a little bit of strength. Corn futures are down a few cents and soybeans are showing pretty hefty double digit losses. Rains in Illinois, South Dakota and Iowa have worked to push grain futures lower and there really remains little fundamental reason for grain prices to go higher. Big crops and quiet demand do not really give much incentive for higher prices. These grain futures are also looking forward to next week's USDA reports. The US dollar is higher this morning on US economic optimism and crude prices are lower due to demand worries.
Spring wheat crop ratings remained steady at 70% good to excellent, even more surprising are that North Dakota ratings went up 2% to 84% good to excellent. Ratings are surprising because the first harvest progress report will be made next week and ratings typically fall as harvest approaches, but not this year! With a lack of much fresh news the market continues to focus on European crop problems, but those are being looked at and we should know more and the extent of the damage due to excessive rainfall by the end of this week.
The soybean market is giving back most of what it gained yesterday in what has become pretty typical trade for soybean futures. The market was expecting to see a decline in soybean crop condition ratings due to recent dry weather concerns. However, that decline did not come and ratings remained steady at 71% good to excellent. Everybody is watching rainfall and forecasts pretty closely to see if the crop will get the timely rains it needs. News that Brazil is expecting a 5% increase in soybean acres may be weighing on futures this morning as well.
Corn crop ratings decreased by 2% to 73% good to excellent, which is still pretty high for this time of year and was expected because ratings tend to fall as the crop matures. Crop estimates remain large and there is not much of, if any, a weather threat to keep prices supported. The market will be watching weather forecasts and waiting for next week's USDA reports to see what has to be said about this year's crop. As I said yesterday, though, private analysts are pegging US corn yield at well above current USDA estimates so we will probably see an upward revision to the USDA yield and total production estimates.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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