SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Aug 1/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is 4-8 higher, European crop quality concerns and ideas wheat may have found its bottom work to pull futures higher (Mpls Sept last trade 6.21 ¼, KC Sept 6.34 ½)
Soybeans are 14-17 lower, selling continues as the market focuses on huge US crop potential and increased global supplies (Nov last trade 10.66 ¾)
Corn is down 2-4 cents, higher global supplies estimated, prices lower despite decent demand (Sept last trade 3.54 ½)
Sunflowers are 0-5 lower, bean oil lower with soybeans and soybean meal, pull oilseeds along for the ride
Canola is down 10-20 cents, following soybeans, crude
*Minot Main Mandatory Maintenance*
The Minot Main Plant will be closed August 11th - 22nd for maintenance required for OSHA compliance. The closure will likely be during winter wheat harvest, so we will be taking winter wheat at our Minot West Plant (sunflower house on Valley Street). Thank you for your continued support and please call if you have any questions or concerns.
Well wheat is the only market that can find strength today, and it's finding some pretty good strength at that. Corn and soybean futures are falling due to large crop prospects. The outside markets are seeing some hesitance in trade this morning after yesterday's stock market crash. The US dollar is lower this morning on mixed economic news and crude is down about 90 cents/barrel. There are thoughts that the Fed will be increasing interest rates earlier than expected due to indications that the US economy recovered enough and able to handle paying higher interest.
As I said above, many are hoping that the wheat futures markets have found their bottom and bouncing up off of that this week. European quality concerns seem to be the primary reason for higher trade in wheat futures this morning. A Canadian crop tour released an estimate of 43.1 bpa for spring wheat in Western Canada, which is 10 bpa lower than last year's crop but still reportedly the second largest crop on record. Limiting gains could be increased global production estimates from the International Grains Council (IGC), the estimates reflect an increase in Russian and Ukrainian crop sizes.
Soybeans have seen some pretty decent demand news this week but after Monday's gains this market has just been faltering. Large US and South American production have really been weighing on futures prices and pushing futures sharply lower this week. Double digit losses have been the norm this week and it looks like we're going to finish things out that way today. Canola futures are being sold off pretty heavily this morning as well, likely taking cue from a lower soybean complex and crude prices.
The corn market should find support from decent export sales numbers but futures are trading in the red anyway this morning as the market continues to focus on US production potential. The IGC increased its global production estimate based on a large US crop and that's hurting futures. However, there is chatter of dryness in some areas of the corn belt. While rain is in the forecast it will take additional rain in the coming weeks to get futures too excited about trading higher off the news.
It looks to be a good day for wheat but a not so good day for everything else. On the week wheat may finish higher if gains hold but the same cannot be said for the corn and soybean markets.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
CHS SunPrairie
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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