SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 22/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:55 AM CDT:
Wheat is 4-7 lower, wheat is trying to find stable ground after strong selling recently, hard to do with ample global supply (Mpls July last trade 7.36 ¼, KC July 7.57 ¼)
Soybeans are up 13-16 cents, soybeans are the market that won't quit, trade focuses on tight old crop supplies (July last trade 15.22 ¼)
Corn is up 0-2 cents, market reluctantly follows beans higher, focused on planting progress (July last trade 4.76)
Sunflowers are up 5-10 cents, following soybean oil higher
Canola is down 5-10 cents, market experiences continued selling pressure
Good planting progress and favorable weather forecasts seem to be dominating the grain markets again this morning. Soybeans, though, are shooting higher on strong technical buying interest spurred by tight old crop supplies. Weekly export sales were fairly uneventful and are not giving futures reason to trade higher.
Rains are expected to fall over the Southern Plains throughout the next few days. Rain totals could reach up to two inches in areas that are extremely dry. While it is too late for some of the crop, other parts of the crop will have some yield protection should the rain make it to those areas. Spring wheat planting progress is expected to jump up a bit this week as weather has mostly cleared up and allowed growers to get in the field. Export demand is not at all exciting with sales coming in at 352 thousand metric MT(TMT) just above the low end of estimates that ranged from 200-700 TMT. A lack of demand combined with favorable crop weather has futures down this morning. Wheat futures tried to stabilize and find strength early this morning and last night but fund selling continues to push prices lower.
Soybean prices are again posting double digit gains in a very unexpected rally. There are thoughts that imports to the US may not be as strong as thought, which generates concern about whether or not we have enough supply to get us to new crop. Also, new crop acres will have to be very high to get us to comfortable stocks levels. With the rise in futures and increased planting progress, farmer selling of new crop soybeans is picking up. If you're seeding soybeans and haven't sold any yet I would get at least some sales covered. High acres are expected and seeding is going well...it could be tough for the soybean market to hold current levels with a large bean crop coming. Weekly export sales were at 615.6 TMT, in line with estimates that ranged from 200-1000 TMT. At this point the market is just happy that there were not net cancellations of old crop sales.
Weekly ethanol production was up this week, keeping demand side news somewhat optimistic. Corn prices are reluctantly following soybeans higher this morning but with rapid planting progress it's tough for futures to want to trade higher. It's really hard to be bullish (to think prices will go higher) corn prices right now with seeding going well and demand not being overly exciting. Weekly export sales were at 570.4 TMT, in line with estimates that ranged from 275-1000 TMT.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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