SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 20/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 10-13 cents, winter wheat conditions and spring wheat planting push prices higher (Mpls July last trade 7.50 ¼, KC July 7.82 ½)
Soybeans are 9-13 higher, technical buying/strength works futures higher (July last trade 14.95)
Corn is down 0-1 cent, after higher overnight on lower than expected planting number futures turn lower (July last trade 4.77 ½)
Sunflowers are down 0-5 cents, bean oil slightly lower which will keep sunflowers under pressure
Canola is up 5-10 cents, following soybean strength, playing catch up after being closed yesterday
As far as exciting, fresh news for the grain futures markets there is very little today. Futures prices are focusing primarily on the USDA planting progress and crop conditions report...which didn't really offer anything too riveting so that momentum will likely lose steam soon. Planting progress was, in general, not as good as expected and behind average pace. For what it's worth the US dollar is higher and crude prices are about 15 cents/barrel lower.
Wheat markets are finding double digit gains this morning on a decline in hard red winter wheat crop conditions and a lower than expected spring wheat planting progress estimate. Winter wheat conditions dropped by 1% to 29% good to excellent, pretty much confirming that recent rains are hardly enough to boost crop prospects. Spring wheat planting progress was expected to be 52% complete but was reported at 49% complete, pretty far behind the five year average pace of 68% complete. North Dakota spring wheat is 25% in which is 30% behind the five year average pace. Ideas that the wheat futures have gotten a bit oversold are helping to boost prices too. However, it was not long ago that we were saying wheat prices were too high and we were priced out of the global export market...so it seems we're walking a fine line with prices and they will be cautious about trading too much higher. On the demand side of things Middle Eastern demand is being satisfied by Black Sea Region wheat.
Soybeans were expected to see planting progress ahead of the five year average of 38% complete but instead came in at 32% done. This has soybean prices a little higher this morning as the market remains concerned about whether or not old crop supplies will be enough to get us to new crop harvest. Additionally, China had another auction where over 80% of soybeans offered were sold. Soybeans are pretty strong and technical buying is only pushing prices higher. Watch out for record planting numbers and for some corn acres to switch over to soybeans as prices are more attractive in the soybean market. Sunflowers are reportedly 1% planted which is 5% behind the five year average. North Dakota flowers are 1% in compared to an average pace of 10%.
Corn planting progress was reported by the USDA to be 73% complete as of Sunday evening. Some in the market was expecting to see progress over the 80% mark but we're still pretty close to the five year average of 76% complete and 2% ahead of last year's pace. The nearby forecast for planting looks good for many corn growing areas and rapid progress is expected again for this week. At this point there is very little concern about planting delays and the market will be watching weather as well as how many acres will switch to beans.
It looks like wheat and soybeans will have a sharply higher day with corn following reluctantly.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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