SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 19/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:55 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 2-4 cents, comfortable US supplies, market focuses less on US conditions (Mpls July last trade 7.48 ½, KC July 7.70)
Soybeans are -1 to +5, will imports be enough to cover gap between old crop and new crop? (July last trade 13.98 ¾)
Corn is down 2-4 cents, fast planting progress and good weather forecasts continue to pressure futures prices (July last trade 4.78 ¼)
Sunflowers are unchanged/-5, bean oil is slightly lower and has sunflower prices on edge
Canola is unchanged - Canadian markets closed today for Victoria Day
Our "outside" markets are quiet this morning as the US dollar is a bit lower and crude prices are up about 95 cents/barrel. In Ukrainian news - tensions are easing as talks continue and Russian troops are told to withdraw to bases. Fighting is reportedly still occurring but overall export concerns have eased and that takes some excitement out of the grain futures markets.
Wheat futures are trading quietly lower this morning. Ample global supply coupled with stabilizing US crop conditions are letting prices drift off. Spring wheat futures are seeing some relative strength (up a penny instead of down three) as perhaps North Dakota planting concerns make market news. Spring wheat is expected to see progress at 47-53% complete with North Dakota lagging behind. Canada is reportedly 25% done with its spring wheat seeding and could be as much as 50% done if weather holds. The US hard red winter wheat crop is expected to see a reduction in its production estimate due to dry weather problems. The drop in prices, though, could result in US wheat becoming competitive again in the global marketplace.
Soybean futures are mostly shrugging off losses in the wheat and corn futures markets. Strengthening Chinese prices and thoughts that US imports might not be enough to cover tight old crop supplies until new crop is harvested could also be providing some support to prices. However, rapid planting progress and expectations for record acres will keep prices in check. US planting progress is expected to be ahead of the five year average of 38% complete...up to 42% done and this week looks good for things to continue. Also out of China - it looks like soybean acres could decrease as growers there concentrate more on seeding rice and corn, which is encouraging for export news. Not much going on in the other oilseed markets this morning with canola closed and bean oil action fairly quiet.
Corn futures are lower so far this morning as rapid planting progress continues. However, a lack of any sort of progress in eastern North Dakota is starting to be rumbled about in the marketplace. Planting progress is expected to be 75-80% complete which is about on pace with the five year average of 76% complete. Needless to say, we're not really too worried about the crop getting seeded at this point. Weather is expected to be pretty favorable for progress to continue and that is what the market is watching.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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