SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 14/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image002.png@01CF4CBF.8F6C7CF0]
Market Outlook as of 9:00 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 12-15 cents, poor crop conditions priced in, rains fall to dry areas, ample global supply (Mpls July last trade 7.82, KC July 8.12 ¼)
Soybeans are mixed, old crop lower, new crop a penny higher (July last trade 14.83)
Corn is down 4-6 cents, following pressure from lower wheat prices (July last trade 4.97 ¾)
Sunflowers are up 5-10 cents, bean oil trades higher despite losses in soybean and soybean meal futures prices
Canola is up 5 cents, deferred contracts are slightly lower and it wouldn't surprise me if prices fell by the end of the day
Quiet early and overnight trade is leading into a sharply lower, strong selling pressure type session this morning. Wheat futures are leading losses but corn and soybeans are all too eager to follow. The US dollar is a bit lower in front of the release of some economic data and the US dollar is higher due to Ukrainian political tensions. Goldman Sachs released a negative outlook on agricultural commodity prices - citing estimates for futures of $4 on corn and about $10.50 on soybeans. Planting progress is the forefront of corn market news.
Ample global supply coupled with rains to some dry US wheat producing areas have wheat futures sharply lower this morning. There are also thoughts that US wheat is too high priced for the global marketplace so we could just be seeing a bit of a correction lower this morning. Buyers are reportedly reluctant to buy Ukrainian wheat due to tensions there and concerns about delivery of grain. Some worries about spring wheat supply could be forming as planting becomes later and later. We could see spring wheat see relatively strong compared to other wheat markets if the crop does not get seeded and the US needs to ration its available supply.
China reportedly sold most of the soybeans offered from its state reserves well above beginning auction prices this week. This is encouraging because it means that demand is still strong amongst Chinese buyers. Also, one of China's largest buyers says it will not default on purchases in order to retain good relationships with trade partners is encouraging. Strong soybean meal futures selling today is adding to soybean weakness. As I said before, soybean oil and canola futures are sloughing off losses and that is encouraging for canola and sunflower prices.
Corn futures are focused on planting progress which the USDA pegged at 59% complete as of Sunday afternoon, which is ahead of the five year average. Some areas are experiencing cool weather which is not super favorable for crop development but other areas are finally getting a break in rains and seeing some good planting weather. There is some demand to speak of which is supportive for prices. Futures were stronger in the overnight session but failed to hold gains with wheat and soybean weakness.
This will be the last update for the week as I will be out of the office Thursday and Friday.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
[image003.jpg]
1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
