SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 9/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:25 AM CDT:
Wheat is 5-8 lower, markets sag before USDA report later this morning (Mpls July last trade 8.00 ¼, KC July 8.35 ¼)
Soybeans are mixed, old crop lower, new crop higher (July last trade 14.67 ¾)
Corn is down 1-3 cents, market expects 50-60% of the crop to be seeded by Sunday afternoon (July last trade 5.15)
Sunflowers are up 0-5 cents, bean oil is slightly higher with crude futures this morning, watch for falling soybean prices to pressure gains
Canola is down 10 cents, futures selling off slightly, yesterday's gains were fairly strong so we could just be correcting after that
Grain futures trade is in all likelihood going to be pretty uneventful until the release of the USDA's monthly S&D report at eleven. There is little fresh or exciting news for prices this morning so we'll probably see futures positions get evened up before the report comes out. The US dollar is higher this morning, as are crude prices which are up about 50 cents/barrel at the moment.
Egypt is again reportedly facing some financing problems which could impact their ability to pay for grain purchases and thus potentially decrease demand. Export business, globally, has quieted down for now and the idea that US wheat prices have climbed a bit too high to be competitive lately could be part of the reason why prices are drifting lower this morning. In supportive news, though, some of the driest hard red winter wheat areas missed rains (again) and remain in danger due to a lack of moisture. No major news is expected for wheat in this morning's USDA report.
At this point, with planting underway, there is little reason to doubt that soybeans will in fact have record acres in the US this year. That being said, we could have a pretty big ending stocks number for the 2014-15 crop in today's USDA report. There are not any significant changes expected for the 2013-14 balance sheet - the only thing I'd keep an eye on is whether or not the USDA increases the import number as soybeans have been coming up from Brazil. China is planning to auction off state soybean reserves next week.
A decline in old crop corn ending stocks is expected today but estimates for the 2014-15 crop are up in the air. Some believe that yield should decline from where the USDA has its current estimate. Others think that acres should decline due to planting issues while some think that rapid progress could mean more corn. Anything reported by the USDA that is well out of the range of estimates could make for exciting price action after the report release. Until then, you can bet prices will be pretty quiet.
Have a great weekend and let's hope that we can miss some of this rainy weather!
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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