SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 8/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:10 AM CDT:
Wheat is 5-7 lower, HRW weather less severe, profit taking continues (Mpls July last trade 8.00, KC July 8.35 ½)
Soybeans are up 7-18 cents, rebounding from Wednesday's weakness, market finds buying interest (July last trade 14.64)
Corn is down 0-1 cent, struggling with lower wheat and higher soybeans, planting progress
Sunflowers are up 0-5 cents, bean oil following a strengthening soybean market despite lower crude prices
Canola is up 0-10 cents, higher soybean complex
In the latest from Ukraine - Putin ordered Russian troops to withdraw from Ukrainian borders. Could this all be winding down? Or at least be starting to? Weekly export sales released this morning were fairly uneventful. The US dollar is higher this morning and crude prices are off almost 50 cents/barrel. Grain futures are mixed this morning with corn unable to decide on a direction, wheat lower and soybeans higher. Prices could be fairly quiet in front of tomorrow's monthly USDA S&D report.
Weekly export sales came in slightly above market estimates that ranged from 100-300 TMT at 445.5 thousand metric MT(TMT). There is little for the market to focus on right now so we're waiting for tomorrow's USDA report. CHS Hedging is estimating a 588 million bushel carryout, 47.2 bushel per acre yield and a total production number of 2.13 billion bushels.
Chinese soybean imports were expected to decrease from March to April, and instead showed an increase. This is encouraging news and soybean futures prices are reacting accordingly. Prices also seem to want to rebound from the weakness found yesterday and much of what was lost has been gained back. Weekly export sales came in at 55 TMT, in line with estimates that expected net cancellations and ranged from -250-100 TMT. CHS hedging is estimating ending stocks at 135 million bushels, yield at 43.3 bpa and total production at 3.289 billbu.
Corn is bouncing around either side of unchanged and is currently just slightly lower. Pressure is being found from big planting progress expectations for this week and dismal export sales. Weekly export sales came in at 282.3 TMT, with estimates that ranged from 500-900 TMT. Needless to say, export sales this week were a little disappointing. CHS Hedging is estimating US ending stocks at 1.314 billion bushels, yield at 158.8 bpa (well below current USDA) and total production at 13.92 billion bushels (which is still a lot of corn!).
It should be a fairly quiet trading day for grain futures in front of tomorrow's monthly USDA report.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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