SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 7/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image002.png@01CF4CBF.8F6C7CF0]
Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is 5-9 lower, profit taking after strong gains and with ideas that prices are overbought (Mpls July last trade 7.98 ½, KC July 8.38 ¼)
Soybeans are down 5-9 cents, chatter about China selling from state reserves later this month (July last trade 14.50 ½)
Corn is down 2-4 cents, following wheat weakness, expectations for good planting progress (July last trade 5.15 ¼)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil is slightly higher but could turn with lower soybean futures
Canola is unchanged, like bean oil is slightly higher at the moment but keep an eye on soybean prices
There is not a whole lot of fresh news for the grain markets this morning and without it prices are drifting lower. After surging higher earlier this week we're seeing some selling pressure as prices are starting to feel "overbought". The US dollar is higher this morning as the Fed gets ready to make some announcements. Crude prices are higher this morning as well due to tensions in Ukraine working to bump commodity prices in general.
The hard red winter wheat market still has some fundamentally supportive news due to poor crop conditions and expectations for high crop abandonment in areas. However, it is old news and without anything fresh or exciting, prices are drifting lower. There are also worries that US wheat prices have simply gotten too high to be competitive in the global marketplace. Tough news to take considering chatter about fresh sales of US wheat this morning. Spring wheat prices may find some underlying strength due to the fact that planting in our top producing state is off to yet another slow start.
Soybean prices are falling due to continued imports from Brazil and news that China could begin auctioning off state reserves starting tomorrow. It is fairly routine, though, for China to auction off beans from its reserves at this time of year so the market really should not be too surprised. I think the bigger underlying concern is about continued demand in general from China. Canola and bean oil prices were posting small gains when I started writing about ten minutes ago but have since turned a little lower, perhaps taking pressure from falling soybean futures.
Corn prices are focused on the extended weather forecasts (which look good) and this week's planting progress (which also looks good). Many in the marketplace are estimating that corn will be as much as 55% planted in Monday afternoon's USDA weekly crop progress report. That would be pretty significant progress made over the week considering we were at 26% planted in this week's progress report. Other than planting and weather there is not a whole lot of news for corn this morning.
On Friday the USDA will release its updated S&D numbers. Many are wondering if there will be an adjustment to yield/acreage estimates for the 2014 crop. We'll also be keeping an eye on USDA export demand projections and how all these things will impact our ending stocks/carryout estimates.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
[image003.jpg]
1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
