SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 5/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:55 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 6-11 cents, violence in Ukraine spreads to major port city, US winter wheat weather unfavorable (Mpls July last trade 7.84, KC July 8.27 ¾)
Soybeans are -2 to +3, old crop struggles as the market needs fresh news to trade higher (July last trade 14.67 ½)
Corn is 2-5 higher, following wheat prices higher, ideas planting falling further behind (July last trade 5.04 ½)
Sunflowers are down 0-5 cents, bean oil falters with soybeans, crude
Canola is down 15-20 cents, markets selling off this morning, pushing market lower
Grain markets are mostly higher this morning with wheat markets leading the way, due mostly to unrest spreading in Ukraine. Apparently violence has moved to the largest port city in Ukraine, making the market believe that we will see disruptions to exports and in turn lending a helping hand to wheat prices. Planting delays keep the corn market higher and soybeans are mixed as the market could really use some fresh news to trade off of. The US dollar is lower this morning and crude prices are lower as well.
Ukrainian violence combined with poor US hard red winter wheat weather has wheat futures strengthening this morning. The market is hopeful that violence in Ukraine could lead to increased demand for US wheat. Reports from the US hard red winter wheat belt are not good as some areas will experience record high temperatures and dry weather this week, making for some of the crop being written off. Other areas will see improving weather this week but is the damage already done? US spring wheat planting progress is expected to be uneventful. Not really a surprise given how wet we've been in North Dakota and the fact that many growers in our area were pushed out of the field by...snow...in May.
Concerns about a weak Chinese economy combined with a lack of fresh fundamental news is resulting in old crop soybean futures drifting lower. Some weakness could be coming from continued reports of imports from Brazil as Chinese purchases are switching destinations. The market could start to focus on planting progress. The USDA is expected to report progress at 8-10% complete this week but the major question is whether or not more acres will go in as corn progress falls further behind. Or will planting weather remain poor, keeping soybean acres from going in? It's still early yet for beans, obviously, so the market is focusing more on the prospect for an increase in acres. Canola prices are struggling this morning, as are bean oil and crude prices. It could be a weak finish to the oilseed markets in general this week.
Corn futures seem to be taking cue from a rising wheat market and ideas that planting progress is falling further behind with little progress made over this past week. Many in the marketplace believe that corn cannot be over 25% seeded, but others have their estimates up to nearly 35% seeded. Last week's progress number had seeding at 19% complete and the five year average for this week is 42% complete. A number in the 30s wouldn't be too concerning but if we're down in the 20s still, we could see some strength this week. As has been the case over the past couple weeks - the market will remain focused on weather forecasts. The next few days look good across many major US growing areas.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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