SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 1/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:00 AM CDT:
Wheat is 1-6 lower, winter wheat maintains strength on poor yield findings, spring wheat falters (Mpls July last trade 7.62 ½, KC July 8.10 ½)
Soybeans are down 15-25 cents, ideas futures overbought, lack of fresh news that will push prices higher (July last trade 14.88 ¼)
Corn is 4-6 lower, favorable weather forecasts over next few days (July last trade 5.13 ½)
Sunflowers are 10-20 lower, bean oil getting hammered with soybeans and soybean meal futures
Canola is down 15-20 cents, falling with soybean complex, crude
It's another yo-yo type day for the grain markets as futures are being sold off pretty heavily and prices are falling. News from the hard red winter wheat crop tour are limiting losses in that market, but for the most part prices are falling without looking back. The US dollar is higher this morning and crude prices are down about 50 cents/barrel. Some market participants overseas have the day off for May Day. Weather forecasts for many major US growing areas are clear for the next few days and long term forecast models provide conflicting information.
On the second day of the US hard red winter wheat quality tour the group reported the worst second day yield findings since the tour's beginning in 2000. The 2nd day yield came back at 30.8 bushels per acre (bpa), well below last year's 37.1 bpa findings. The overall yield average so far is 32.8 bpa, lower than last year's 40.5 bpa. Final yield results will be released later this afternoon. Oklahoma is reportedly conducting its own tour and finding yields of 18.5 bpa, 13 bushels below last year's yield. Good rains are in the forecast and that has prices on edge as well. Weekly export sales were reported in line with estimates that ranged from 300-875 thousand metric MTat 434.5 TMT.
Argentinean soybean harvest is over halfway done and many are expecting an upward revision to production estimates. That, combined with ideas that further shipments from Brazil will switch destinations from China to the US have soybean futures plummeting this morning. We could really use some fresh, supportive news to trade off of. Without it we're subject to profit taking and ideas that futures have become overbought. It looks like we may make it through this tight supply situation with the help of imported soybeans. Weekly export sales were in the negative for old crop soybeans, which only furthers losses. Weekly export sales were expected to come in at -50-550 TMT and were reported at 62.5 TMT. So that's not really anything for the market to get excited about at this point. Canola and sunflowers will trade accordingly with the falling soybean complex.
Weather is pushing corn futures lower this morning despite pretty decent demand. Futures are about six cents lower across the board as the US is expected to make some decent planting progress over the next couple of days. As I said above, long term weather forecasts are conflicting with some reporting more wet weather and some calling for nice dry, warm weather to continue. Weekly export sales were reported at 951.7 TMT, in line with estimates that ranged from 500-1350 TMT.
There will not be a morning grain update tomorrow as many of us from SunPrairie will be participating in Minot's citywide cleanup. Look for us on Valley and 27th streets tomorrow morning!
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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