SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 16/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:05 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 7-10 cents, concerns about exports from Russia/Ukraine as tensions mount (Mpls May last trade 7.47 ½, KC May 7.73 ½)
Soybeans are 6-13 higher, old crop attempts to ration tight supplies by increasing prices, new crop follows (July last trade 15.01 ¾)
Corn is down 0-2 cents, good planting weather forecasts for bulk of US growing areas (July last trade 5.08 ½)
Sunflowers are up 5-10 cents, bean oil rising with soybean and soybean meal prices, higher crude and canola help
Canola is 5-10 higher, buying interest spurred from climbing soybean complex and crude prices
Grain markets are continuing to keep their focus on mounting tensions in Ukraine and US planting weather. Ukrainian military clashed overnight with pro-Russian militants which is only adding concern about the potential for a civil war in Ukraine. The US dollar is slightly lower this morning and crude prices are nearly a dollar per barrel higher due to Ukrainian tensions and Chinese economic news. Grain markets and SunPrairie are closed Friday for the Good Friday holiday - have a happy Easter!
Wheat prices are higher as they worry about exports from the Black Sea region due to increased military activity in Ukraine. Prices started out a bit lower overnight but have since turned higher on buying interest and fresh news out of the Ukraine. Concerns about damage from freezing temperatures in the hard red winter wheat belt may also be pushing prices higher this morning, but the market still has yet to fully determine how much damage has occurred. Chinese wheat acres are expected to decline this year as farmers look to plant more corn and rice. Looking at supply and demand factors there is not much reason for prices to be climbing sharply higher...but when you throw in global uncertainty investors want to rush to push their money in something more secure and commodity futures are reaping the benefits of that.
Soybean prices shot higher yesterday afternoon after the release of the NOPA crush report that indicated that US soybean crush numbers are well ahead of the pace needed to meet current USDA crush estimates. Also, higher than expected crush numbers generate concern about rationing tight US old crop supplies, so the market is climbing higher in an attempt to keep stocks from dwindling too much further. Keep in mind, though, that imports of soybeans from South America have been occurring. Also, the US has record acreage planting intentions for this year and that is keeping new crop prices from climbing too much higher at the moment.
Quiet overnight trade has led to a quiet day session that is seeing corn prices drift lower for now. The Black Sea Region drama may spur some concerns about global corn trade - but there have been reports of corn sales out of Russia so for now it does not seem that the unrest is causing problems for exports. Corn is focusing primarily on US weather forecasts which are pretty favorable for much of the corn belt over the next (at least) 10 days. Planting pace is slightly ahead of last year and it seems that the market is becoming slightly optimistic about the crop getting seeded this year. If acreage estimates are met the corn market will see a pretty big bump in ending stocks for 2014-15.
Look for a fairly quiet day today unless some additional, crazy news out of Russia and Ukraine comes out that increases concerns and pushes prices higher.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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