SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 24/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:30 AM CDT:
Wheat is 7-10 higher, winter wheat weather concerns, Russia/Ukraine mess (Mpls May last trade 7.52 ½, KC May 7.80)
Soybeans are up 2-10 cents, old crop gains on tight supplies, new crop reluctantly follows (May last trade 14.18 ¾)
Corn is 3-6 higher, Russia/Ukraine news, Taiwan looking to buy (May last trade 4.84 ¼)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil just barely higher despite gains in soybean, crude and canola futures
Canola is up 5-10 cents, looking to soybeans for direction, higher crude helps
Soybeans saw a very volatile overnight session, going from trading sharply lower to sharply higher to settling somewhere in between. Corn and wheat prices found some support from weekend developments in Crimea. Russia stepped up their military presence and threatened Ukrainian troops which have since been pulled out. The US and EU continue to put sanctions on those involved in the annexation of Crimea. Corn and wheat futures are higher as they hope for further drama and are concerned about what impact all this may have on exports from Ukraine. China had some slightly unfavorable economic news released which could have been the reason we saw some lower prices in the soybean market in the overnight session as that makes us worried about demand. The grain markets are waiting on the March 31st stocks and prospective plantings reports. The US dollar is higher this morning and crude prices are up about 66 cents/barrel.
Fundamental wheat news remains scarce so prices are focused on the happenings in the Black Sea Region...more specifically Crimea and the Russian/Ukrainian saga. Thoughts are that Ukrainian exports will be interrupted, however from what I've gathered, Crimea is not a major area for exports out of Ukraine. Anytime there's global uncertainty or unrest it seems is a time that investors look to invest in something tangible, like commodities. Wheat exports in the US have been fairly uneventful lately and that may weigh slightly on futures. Dry and windy weather in the US southern plains should provide some support to new crop winter wheat futures.
After the release of the unfavorable Chinese economic data soybean prices became concerned about demand for beans and that may have contributed to last night's lower prices. However, higher corn and wheat markets gave a helping hand to soybean futures and helped to pull prices higher as the session progressed. It could be tough for soybeans to hang onto gains today. Old crop prices are stronger than new crop as US supplies are pretty tight. Commercial buying interest probably also has something to do with the higher prices we're seeing this morning. Canola prices were slightly higher just a few moments ago but have since turned lower, pulling bean oil down as well. It looks to be a choppy day for the oilseeds today.
Corn futures are up about a nickel, likely gathering most of the support from the Black Sea drama. Some support could be from Taiwan out looking to buy corn, but several different countries are throwing out offers and who knows if the US will get that business amongst all the competition. Corn futures continue to focus on what will happen as far as acres go in the US this year. Little fresh news makes the market fairly dull and prices subject to global news and the scarce demand news that comes around.
Prices are higher for now but I'm curious as to whether they will hold throughout the session.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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