SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 21/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:30 AM CDT:
Wheat is 4-7 lower, fund selling continues, prices off overnight lows (Mpls May last trade 7.54, KC May 7.80 ¾)
Soybeans are down 9-20 cents, old crop futures much lower than new crop due to demand concerns (May last trade 14.17)
Corn is up 0-1 cent, market must be finding some buying support somewhere despite some unfavorable demand news (May last trade 4.80)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, bean oil falling with lower canola and soybean prices this morning
Canola is 30-40 cents lower, strong selling pressure continues in the canola market, makes sense after recent price bump over the last month or so
Grain markets are mostly lower this morning as selling pressure continues to dominate prices. Corn futures have somehow managed to work their way higher at the moment despite falling wheat and soybean prices. The US dollar is lower this morning and crude prices are up about 30 cents/barrel. Tensions with Russia are taking the forefront for news for global investors and continue to make things increasingly antsy. The EU and US are working on Russian sanctions, only adding fuel to the fire.
Wheat prices are cutting back again this morning. Yesterday we saw a 10 cent basis decline coupled with a five cent futures loss to make for 15 cent losses in cash prices by the end of the day yesterday. Profit taking is continuing today in the wheat markets and we're seeing losses of about a nickel so far this morning. Basis declines as wheat selling has picked up pretty substantially and it seems that end users are getting product at least semi regularly, despite the terrible rail delays.
Chinese ports are reportedly pretty congested, full of soybeans, as the poor crush margins and bird flu have really hurt soybean meal demand. China is also expected to make further purchase cancellations, not only from the US but from South America as well. Some of the cancelled cargoes from Brazil could be imported to the US, which is unfavorable for old crop US soybean prices and part of the reason why we're seeing double digit losses this morning. The onslaught of negative news coupled with profit taking/fund selling is really having a negative impact on prices this morning and pushing things lower. Canola and soybean oil prices are showing sharp losses this morning, meaning that we will probably see lower sunflower, canola and possibly even flax prices by today's close.
Corn prices are marginally higher this morning which is quite the accomplishment given the losses in the soybean and wheat futures markets. The market is hopeful that China will meet and approve the GMO trait MIR162, which would work to boost US exports to China back to previous levels. The decision could come as early as this month and if not then possibly June. Unfavoralbe news for the corn market is that China stepped up its imports from Ukraine and decrease its corn imports from the US.
Look for a mostly lower finish to the week with corn prices finding some strength. Have a great weekend!
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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