SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 17/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is 4-9 lower, lack of drama in the Black Sea Region coupled with ideas that last week's gains were overdone (Mpls May last trade 7.26 ½, KC May 7.46 ¾)
Soybeans are down 3-5 cents, decline in export demand lets futures drift lower (May last trade 13.82 ¾)
Corn is 5-7 lower, bean acres switch to corn? (May last trade 4.80 ¼)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil trade uneventful so far this morning, could keep sunflowers from losing out
Canola is unchanged this morning, futures board quiet despite soybean and crude losses
*CHS Harvest for Hunger*
We are in the midst of our annual Harvest for Hunger fundraiser which began the first and runs through the 20th of this month. Each dollar donated is equivalent to four meals and all contributions are given to our local food banks. Various SunPrairie Grain locations will be having fundraisers in the coming weeks. In Minot, we are having a Chili Feed and Bake Sale on the 19th at the new office from noon - 2:00 pm. The Chili Feed will be a free will offering with all proceeds going to the campaign. Velva is also having a Chili Feed at the elevator on the 17th from 11:00am-2:00pm. If you have already donated we greatly appreciate your contribution and support. Every dollar donated makes a difference!
Well, Crimea voted to join Russia over the weekend. The results of the vote come as no surprise..however the US, EU and Ukraine all view the vote as illegal. There has not been any additional unrest after the decision, though, and exports out of the Black Sea Region remain strong. So grain markets have started "selling the fact" after "buying the rumor" last week on thoughts prices would be higher after the vote. For what it's worth the US dollar is a tad lower this morning and crude prices are down about 35 cents/barrel.
Wheat markets are lower this morning as last week's gains are feeling a bit overdone to many in the marketplace. An absence of fresh unrest in the Black Sea Region has the marketplace thinking that perhaps we got a bit too excited about Crimea. However, things could always change on that front. For now, though, exports out of the Black Sea have not been interrupted due to the Ukrainian/Russian mess. In fact, there was recently an increase in the Russian export estimate as a decline in Ukrainian exports is expected. Seeding has reportedly begun in areas of Ukraine but there is chatter that up to 20% could go unseeded this spring due to financing issues. If that turns out to be the case we could find some underlying support for wheat and/or corn prices.
Brazilian soybean harvest is ahead of last year's pace and is nearly 60% complete. Soybeans were lower in the overnight session but seem to be working their way higher, which is somewhat of a surprise considering recent demand indications. China is reportedly looking to sell more of its state grain reserves, which could decrease demand for imported grain. Also, Chinese economic concerns are around that keep the market worrying about long term demand from China as well. Canola prices are pretty uneventful this morning, only slightly higher on the futures board at the moment.
Corn prices are lower on the Crimea news this morning as it doesn't look like there will be an interruption to exports that could help boost demand for US grains and get the corn market excited. Also weighing on things are ideas that US acres could be switching from corn to soybeans. Given the recent, strong rally in soybean futures I can't see that too many acres would want to switch when you consider things strictly from a price perspective. So we will have to see what the USDA has to say about that in the March 31st prospective plantings report.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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