SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 12/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT:
Wheat is 1-5 higher, resisting losses in the corn and soybean markets, wheat trades higher on Ukrainian uncertainty (Mpls May last trade 7.11 ¾, KC May 7.33)
Soybeans are down 18-35 cents, old crop losses much greater than new crop, technical selling and profit taking the reason (May last trade 13.78)
Corn is down 3-5 cents, quiet demand and strong selling have corn futures lower (May last trade 4.79 ½)
Sunflowers are down 20-30 cents, bean oil is sharply lower this morning with the falling soybean, soybean meal, canola and crude oil markets
Canola is 30-35 cents lower, canola futures cannot escape the selling pressure that is hammering the other grain markets this morning
*CHS Harvest for Hunger*
We are in the midst of our annual Harvest for Hunger fundraiser which began the first and runs through the 20th of this month. Each dollar donated is equivalent to four meals and all contributions are given to our local food banks. Various SunPrairie Grain locations will be having fundraisers in the coming weeks. In Minot, we are having a Chili Feed on the 19th at the new office from noon - 2:00 pm. The Chili Feed will be a free will offering with all proceeds going to the campaign. Velva is also having a Chili Feed at the elevator on the 17th from 11:00am-2:00pm. If you have already donated we greatly appreciate your contribution and support. Every dollar donated makes a difference!
The US dollar is lower this morning but that is doing little to nothing for grain futures this morning as everything but the wheat markets are under some significant pressure. Crude futures are no exception as prices are down about $1.35/barrel at the moment. Ukrainian weather is reportedly pretty good for spring work right now but financing this year's crop is where most concerns lie right now. The grain markets seem to be waiting for the March 31st stocks and prospective plantings reports...so it could be a pretty repetitive couple of weeks as we wait for those to be released and overanalyze every estimate that comes out. Spring like temps across much of the US have us getting pretty excited about planting season.
Speaking of warmer weather, in the southern plains it looks like the hard red winter wheat crop could be breaking dormancy in areas. We will soon be able to assess any damage that occurred over the winter to the crop. Ukrainian politics are working to keep US prices supported. While Ukrainian shipments have been steady and "normal", the market is still concerned about what may happen as we move forward. India is preparing for wheat harvest and the market is a little concerned about rains in the forecast and what damage they may have on the crop. Fundamentally wheat prices seem high. From a numbers perspective, there is still plenty of wheat supply available in the US and world to meet with demand and that does not look to change in 2014-15. However, technically prices keep on climbing and this news out of Ukraine only boosts things higher.
Brazilian logistics are reportedly keeping up fairly well, getting soybeans to the marketplace much faster than years prior. The efficient moving of the crop could keep demand interest from coming back to the US, especially considering the recent price bump in US old crop soybean prices. There is continuing chatter of further Chinese soybean cancellations which raises huge question markets about their demand needs. Also, China has had a slew of unfavorable economic news around recently and that adds more uncertainty to what their long term demand will look like. Today's price movement seems to be technically driven profit taking more than anything. Weakness is spreading to the bean oil, meal and canola markets as well which means that oilseeds in general will probably be lower today.
Brazil lowered its corn crop estimate by just a bit today, but that does not seem to want to help out US prices this morning as futures are posting a loss. End users are not screaming for corn as recent selling has been enough to get their needs covered for now. Ukrainian uncertainty also works to provide some support to the marketplace but selling pressure driven by technical factors seems to be enough to push prices lower today.
It would surprise me if wheat was able to hold gains as the corn and soybean markets continue to fall. Look for a mostly lower day today as the market returns some of what it has given us. Sorry there was not an update yesterday - I was home sick. Oh the joys of having a child in daycare!
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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