SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 10/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 2-4 cents, markets quiet in anticipation of USDA report this morning (Mpls May last trade 7.00 ½, KC May 7.19 ¼)
Soybeans are 8-11 lower, Chinese economic concerns combined with fund selling pressure (May last trade 14.46 ¾)
Corn is down 2-4 cents, relaxing in front of report, quiet in Ukraine (May last trade 4.85)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil is uneventful for now, keeping movement in the sunflower market quiet
Canola is unchanged, pressure in the soybean/meal and crude futures will make it difficult to find strength
*CHS Harvest for Hunger*
We are in the midst of our annual Harvest for Hunger fundraiser which began the first and runs through the 20th of this month. Each dollar donated is equivalent to four meals and all contributions are given to our local food banks. Various SunPrairie Grain locations will be having fundraisers in the coming weeks. In Minot, we are having a Chili Feed on the 19th at the new office from noon - 2:00 pm. The Chili Feed will be a free will offering with all proceeds going to the campaign. If you have already donated we greatly appreciate your contribution and support. Every dollar donated makes a difference!
Grain markets are mostly lower ahead of this morning's USDA report and after last week's strength. Speculative position evening, spurring selling pressure, could be part of the reason we're seeing lower prices to start this morning. News out of Ukraine was fairly uneventful over the weekend - while there are still concerns regarding exports, markets have relaxed for the time being. The US dollar is slightly higher this morning and crude prices are down over $1.50/barrel at the moment.
The market is expecting to see an increase in US carry out estimates in this morning's USDA report. However, globally, the market is estimating that there will be a very slight decrease in carry out. Overall the report is expected to be fairly neutral for the wheat markets. Buyers are reportedly looking to source wheat from places other than Ukraine. While there have yet to be any delays, prices have shot up in Ukraine, keeping buyers at bay. Also, delays could take place if politics remain messy and that also has buyers seeking alternate wheat sources. As spring is working its way to the US the markets will really be keeping an eye on hard red winter wheat breaking dormancy and how the crop looks in addition to spring wheat acres and when seeding will begin. Logistics look to remain a mess. Canada mandated that the CP and CN railroads start delivering so a certain number of cars can be loaded each week (5500 I believe)....will the mandate result in less cars being loaded in the US?
The market is anticipating a decline in US ending stocks in this morning's USDA report to 141 million bushels...however the market was also expecting that decline to come in February's report and the USDA left it unchanged. Global soybean stocks are expected to see a decrease from February's estimate as well. So until the report, look for soybean prices to trade lower and after the report, we'll focus on what it had to say for at least a little while. Unfavorable economic news out of China, creating some concern about demand, is keeping soybean prices from gaining much this morning. Canola prices and soybean oi8l prices are just slightly lower this morning. Soybean meal is falling off pretty heavily.
Corn is expecting to see a small increase in US ending stocks...however the market is also expecting an increase in exports. If the increase in exports is more than the market estimates then we may not see that increase in ending stocks. The global corn stocks estimate is expected to decrease in this morning's report as well. For now prices are lower with the wheat and soybean markets. Farmer selling has been fairly steady which could be keeping a lid on futures prices as well.
Look for futures to be quietly lower until the release of the USDA report this morning. It's expected to be a fairly neutral report but any surprises could be heavily traded, especially since we have generated some fund interest back into the grain markets.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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