SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 7/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 7-10 cents, fund buying interest and higher European markets pull US futures higher (Mpls May last trade 7.03, KC May 7.20 ¾)
Soybeans are 7-13 higher, a large weekly export sales report has futures gaining as the market anticipates tight US supplies this summer (May last trade 14.50 ½)
Corn is 0-4 higher, new crop turning lower, old crop higher with Ukrainian issues and technical buying (May last trade 4.95 ¾)
Sunflowers are 0-5 higher, bean oil isn't doing much which is a surprise given higher soybean and soybean meal prices
Canola is up 5-10 cents, buying interest mild after several days of strong gains
*CHS Harvest for Hunger*
We are in the midst of our annual Harvest for Hunger fundraiser which began the first and runs through the 20th of this month. Each dollar donated is equivalent to four meals and all contributions are given to our local food banks. Various SunPrairie Grain locations will be having fundraisers in the coming weeks. In Minot, we are having a Chili Feed on the 19th at the new office from noon - 2:00 pm. The Chili Feed will be a free will offering with all proceeds going to the campaign. If you have already donated we greatly appreciate your contribution and support. Every dollar donated makes a difference!
These grain markets just won't quit! Where is the top? Nobody knows, but each day brings us to another strong selling opportunity. We will probably see a generally stronger finish in the markets today but we need to plan for what could be coming Monday...the USDA is releasing its monthly supply and demand report and those are always full of surprises. There are not many changes expected, however, but we could see some correcting/profit taking in the wake of the report. Just some fuel for thought. The US dollar was lower this morning, spurring buying interest, but has since turned higher and may limit market gains. Crude prices are higher this morning as well. There is more tension in Ukraine today which has the European wheat futures higher and is lending support to US futures. Fundamentally, there is not much fresh news to support these higher prices. Do not forget to spring forward for daylight savings time this weekend!
Monday's USDA report is expected to show an increase in US wheat carryout estimates from 558 million bushels estimated in February to 570 millbu. Logistics remain a mess and that could continue to provide the markets with some support as we move forward. Basis values in later months are not near the levels they are now - consider that if you still have some old crop grain to price. As I said above, rising European prices are providing some support to the US markets.
The soybean market is hoping for the decline in US ending stocks that it was hoping for last month and didn't see. The average guess is for US soybean ending stocks to drop to 141 million bushels from 150 million bushels estimated in February. This estimate seems realistic given recent, strong export sales and little signs of rationing the already tight US carryout. Globally, though, stocks are adequate to meet demand.
Argentinean harvest has begun and the general idea is that the crop will be smaller than many current estimates. The USDA is expected to increase ending stocks just slightly from 1.481 billion bushels estimated in February to 1.488 billbu. New crop prices continue to struggle with projections of large production and ending stocks for the 2014-15 crop year. Old crop prices are higher due to demand optimism and buying interest.
Have a great weekend!
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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