SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 3/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:25 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 22-25 cents, concerns about hard red winter wheat damage combined with Ukrainian unrest (Mpls May last trade 6.78 ½, KC May 7.03)
Soybeans are 10-12 higher, speculative buying interest limited by Chinese demand concerns (May last trade 14.24 ¼)
Corn is up 8-10 cents, reluctant follower, demand optimism and Brazilian planting worries (May last trade 4.72 ¾)
Sunflowers are 15-25 higher, bean oil rallies with crude, soybeans
Canola is up 30-40 cents, market sharply higher with strong commodity buying interest this morning
Grains rally!! Prices are sharply higher this morning with the situation in Ukraine pulling most of the headlines. Ideas are that with tensions with Russia increasing over the weekend that war is possible and grain export delays are imminent. With Ukraine potentially seeing export delays we could see demand shift to the US, and our grain prices are optimistic about that. Additionally, the uncertainty in the Black Sea Region has investors switching their buying interest to tangible assets (AKA commodities) which contributes to the bump. This could all be very short lived if Russia does indeed back down, which is being heavily encouraged by the global community. Other than the mess in Ukraine there is little other for grain markets to focus on than weather.
There are thoughts that another cold spurt to the southern plains could be damaging the US hard red winter wheat crop, which recently saw its snow cover melt away. Will the fluctuation in temperatures cause some winterkill? The market obviously won't be able to assess damage until after the crop breaks dormancy, but we can put the concern into prices right now. Ukraine exports a lot of wheat and with potential disruptions to their export program, wheat markets are optimistic that more buyers will come to the US for supply.
Chinese demand concerns could be keeping a lid on soybean price gains this morning. Chinese economic uncertainty, the bird flu epidemic and slow soybean usage all create worries about just how strong Chinese demand will be as we move forward. Also, buyers will probably continue to go to South America, scooping up freshly harvested soybeans at lower prices. Other oilseeds look to be higher this morning as canola, soybean oil and crude futures are all sharply rallying.
Ukraine is big in the corn market as well, which is pulling corn futures higher this morning as the market hopes for additional demand for US corn. Also, Brazil has been seeing some wet weather recently which could be delaying planting of the winter corn crop. Otherwise, the market will be looking to this month's USDA reports and keeping an eye on US planning intentions and production prospects for this year.
Sorry it's so late today - been a crazy morning with the board rally.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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