SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Feb 10/14 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:00 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 1-4 cents, after starting out lower commercial buying seems to be boosting prices higher (Mpls May last trade 6.22, KC May 6.41 ½)
Soybeans are 6-8 higher, the USDA is expected to tighten ending stocks in this morning's monthly report (March last trade 13.37)
Corn is down 0-2 cents, strong exports and ethanol demand cannot lift prices this morning, increased farmer selling (March last trade 4.43 ½)
Sunflowers are up 5-10 cents, bean oil is stronger with soybeans and canola
Canola is up 5-10 cents, buying interest with strong soybean complex ahead of USDA report
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February 11th and 14th - Introduction to Options Trade, Minot Office, 12:30 lunch, 1:00 Meeting
February 25th - Introduction to Options Trade, Ryder Senior Center, 12:00 lunch, 12:30 meeting
February 26th - Introduction to Futures, Hedging and Basis, Lignite, 8:00 AM
*If you don't see a location near you do not fear - there are more to come!
Grain futures are waiting for the USDA's monthly report and trade, for the most part, is fairly enthusiastic ahead of it. Soybeans are up about eight cents and wheat is up 3-5 cents. Corn is struggling to follow suit, down about a penny across the board. Tighter ending stocks are estimated across the board for the grain markets and that is part of the reason for higher prices this morning. Additionally, outside markets are favorable as the US dollar is lower and crude prices are slightly (only 3 cents/barrel) higher at the moment. The USDA report will be released at 11 AM.
The USDA is expected to decrease US wheat ending stocks by 5 million bushels from January's report to 603 millbu. Global ending stocks are expected to decline as well from 185.4 million metric MT(MMT) to 185.0 MMT. Anticipation for a decline in US stocks combined with commercial buying interest is resulting in some pretty decent gains for wheat futures this morning. Pretty good snow cover across the US southern plains has helped provide protection for the US hard red winter wheat crop and is easing concerns about winterkill. Ample global supply will also keep a lid on prices.
As I mentioned above, anticipated tightening in US soybean ending stocks is pushing soybean futures higher again this morning. Stocks are expected to fall to 143 million bushels from 150 millbu estimated in January. However, global supply is expected to increase to 72.67 MMT from a 72.33 MMT January estimate. Concerns about a Chinese economic slowdown and how that could impact soybean demand are around as well. However, China will need soybeans regardless so concerns may be limited.
Corn futures are slightly lower this morning despite expectations for the USDA to decrease US ending stocks estimates to 1.62 billion bushels from 1.63 billbu in January. Global ending stocks are expected to fall as well, but only slightly, to 159.6 MMT from 106.23 MMT estimated in January. Export and ethanol demand have both been very strong recently and that will likely account for the decline in ending stocks that is expected later this morning. However, higher prices have also resulted in an increase in farmer selling which keeps futures prices in check. Chinese imports are down this year but their large domestic crop has ending stocks estimated at near record levels. The Brazilian 2nd corn crop is reportedly 16% planted.
Expect futures to be fairly quiet this morning ahead of the USDA report - and then we will trade the report at least through the rest of the day.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1800 13th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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