SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Oct 23/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:55 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 8-10 cents, this puts December spring wheat cash price very close to the $7 mark...(Mpls Dec last trade 7.64 ¾, KC Dec 7.75 ½)
Soybeans are 8-10 higher, strong demand and technicals pull prices higher (Nov last trade 13.13)
Corn is 2-4 higher, stronger wheat and soybean prices despite some export demand concerns (Dec last trade 4.41 ¾)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil is fairly quiet tonight despite the nearly double digit gains in soyean futures
Canola is up 5-10 cents, following a stronger soybean complex
2014 Contracts
2014 Malt Barley and HO Sunflower contracts have been released. Malt barley is at $5.50/bushel today and we are offering tradition and pinnacle. The contract comes with an AOG and three cents/month storage beginning October 1, 2014. HO Sunflower contracts have three delivery periods (F/M, A/M and J/J), AOG of 1,250 lb/acre and flexible pricing. Contracts are going to be offered to those who had them last year first. If you are interested in a contract and did not have one last year please give us a call and we will see if we can get the extra bushels or acres to get you signed up! Thanks!
Speculative buying seems to be the driver for grain prices today as there is little fresh fundamental news to drive the higher prices that we are seeing this morning. The US dollar was sharply lower yesterday on disappointing jobs numbers which could be spurring some hopes for export demand and translating into the gains we're seeing today. Crude prices are being whacked again today, down nearly $2/barrel at the moment and putting prices at $96.50/barrel.
December delivery spring wheat is half a penny away from hitting that seven dollar mark that I know many of you have been waiting for. A weaker dollar combined with hopes for continued strong export business seems to be keeping prices higher today. However, I'm not sure how long that strength can be maintained considering that South Korea cancelled their tender due to high prices and Japan skipped their weekly tender. Winter wheat conditions remain favorable and Argentina is expected to put out a higher crop estimate sometime this week. When you look at all the news available for wheat prices right now you have to wonder how prices are trading higher.
Harvest pressure seems to be easing up on soybean prices as harvest is wrapping up in many areas. Additionally, processor and export demand remains pretty strong and that keeps things elevated as well. The USDA is expected to report a large export sales number for the Sept 26-Oct 18th period when it plays catch-up from missed reports. A lower US dollar will most definitely be supportive to soybean futures as well. Soybean oil futures do not seem to have the excitement that soybean futures do, which will work to keep sunflower, flax and canola prices from rising too much.
News in the corn market really isn't that great either but prices are wanting to trade higher with the corn and soybean markets. South Korea cancelled their corn tender as well, citing high prices. Taiwan also purchased Brazilian corn, skipping past the US. Brazil will provide some stiff competition to US corn this year. Consumptive demand for corn is strong, which may be providing some support, but other than that there is not much happening to justify higher prices...especially considering the record harvest that is happening.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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