SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Oct 22/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 2-4 cents, Argentina made a mistake reporting their wheat crop estimate, it should be bigger (Mpls Dec last trade 7.54 ½ , KC Dec 7.64)
Soybeans are 7-9 lower, better Brazilian weather, profit taking push futures lower (Nov last trade 12.94)
Corn is down 1-3 cents, farmer selling increasing due to bigger than expected yields, harvest pressure (Dec last trade 4.42)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil action is fairly quiet today, harvest at a pause due to unfavorable weather
Canola is down 0-5 cents, market weaker with soybeans this morning
Grain futures are mostly lower this morning as the USDA was able to release its weekly crop progress report - saying that harvest progress is coming along well and winter wheat seeding is on pace. The US dollar is lower this morning and crude prices are bouncing around unchanged, currently two cents lower, with prices under that $100 mark. The grain markets are still pretty optimistic about demand which should help to limit some of our losses on the futures board but today it looks like things want to be modestly lower.
Wheat futures traded lower in the overnight session but have started to work their way higher as the day session has opened up. On Friday wheat prices were higher due in part to a much smaller than expected wheat crop estimate from Argentina. However, Argentina said on Monday that the estimate was a mistake and that an upward revision will be released this week. That news had wheat prices a little bit lower in the overnight trade. Additionally, winter wheat seeding is on pace with the five year average at 79% complete and only 4% of the crop is rated poor to very poor. Row crop weakness seemed to be contributing to lower wheat prices but wheat has managed to break out on its own and trade higher.
Soybean prices are lower and that is being credited to profit taking hitting the market today as the session fails to hold Monday's strength. Additionally, it seems that soybean prices have a hard time holding above that $13 mark. The market is expecting export demand to remain strong which will help to keep basis values at current levels. However, we will likely see an upward revision of the US crop estimate from the USDA which will put pressure on prices as we move forward. The USDA pegged US harvest at 63% complete, which is 6% below the five year average. Most states are on pace but North Dakota is, understandably, noticeably behind on progress.
Farmer selling of freshly harvested corn seems to have picked up and bigger than expected yields can likely take the credit for that happening. There is still a lot of new crop corn for the US to chew through as only 39% of harvest is complete (well behind the five year average pace of 53% complete). The USDA will probably revise its corn crop estimates higher as well on the November S&D report, to be released the eighth. On the positive side, though, export demand is expected to remain strong as we move forward as reports of new sales are floating around.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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