SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Oct 18/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:30 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 10-12 cents, high expectations for export numbers to be released from the USDA later today (Mpls Dec last trade 7.56 ¾, KC Dec 7.61 ¾)
Soybeans are 2-4 higher, technical buying combined with optimism about export demand (Nov last trade 12.96 ½)
Corn is 1-3 higher, waiting for the USDA to confirm sales to China as it is widely believed that lots of corn was purchased during the shutdown (Dec last trade 4.45 ¾)
Sunflowers are up 0-5 cents, following a stronger soybean complex
Canola is 10-15 cents higher, taking cue from rising bean complex as well
The USDA cancelled the October crop report, saying it will combine that report with the November report which is to be released on November eighth. Export sales will be released later today and crop progress reports will resume Monday, leaving the ones we missed during the shutdown cancelled. Wheat is leading the grain markets higher this morning with expectations for high export sales. A lower US dollar also helps to support grain prices.
Reports of Asian buyers scooping up US wheat has the wheat markets posting double digit gains. If you are waiting for the seven dollar mark to start hauling spring wheat keep an eye on the December delivery slot that is only seven cents away. We may just hit that if strong export sales are reported. Support may also be coming from the Argentine estimate of its wheat crop which came in much lower than what the USDA is currently estimating.
Soybeans are higher at the moment but having a difficult time hanging onto higher values. The USDA is expected to report strong export demand and a lower US dollar combined with higher crude prices should be helping keep soybeans supported. Technical buying could be waning for the time being which could be some of the reason why we're seeing prices retreat. Soybean oil and canola prices are both higher this morning which means that other oil seeds should perform well today.
There are thoughts that China bought a lot of US corn during the government shutdown. Hopes of strong Chinese demand have futures higher today - stronger wheat prices help too. Harvest pressure and struggling soybean prices could keep corn prices from rising too far but it looks like we could have a pretty strong finish to the week. Harvest weather looks to be pretty good as we move forward so harvest pressure will continue to pick up in the coming weeks.
These markets are just waiting for some good demand news. If they get it prices will be well supported to finish out the day and the week, if they don't we could struggle to maintain higher prices into the close.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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