SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Oct 16/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image001.jpg@01CD002F.571BB930]
Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 1-3 cents, following corn prices, lack of demand news (Mpls Dec last trade 7.49 ¼, KC Dec 7.54 ¾)
Soybeans are 6-8 cents higher, chatter about Chinese purchases keep market supported, harvest winding up in areas (Nov last trade 12.75 ¾)
Corn is 0-2 lower, ideas that yield is well above the current USDA estimate (Dec last trade 4.42 ¼)
Sunflowers are up 0-10 cents, bean oil strengthening with soybeans and will likely pull flowers higher too
Canola is up 20-30 cents, higher with soyoil
There has been no progress overnight with the US debt limit so markets are a bit shaky as tomorrow is the day the US defaults. The US dollar is lower on the news but optimism remains that a deal will be reached in the nick of time. Grain markets have become quite boring without the USDA information we're used to, some volatility seems to have left for the time being. What will happen when the USDA resumes operations? There will likely have to be adjustments made to corn and soybean estimates and that will not be good for prices. For now, though, there is nothing exciting happening in the markets so grains are trading technical news and supply/demand rumors.
Wheat and corn trade are hand in hand lately. Corn prices are a little lower this morning so wheat prices are following suit. Ideas are that global wheat supply will be ample enough to keep up with demand. Additionally, will US demand be able to keep up? The US corn crop and Canadian wheat crop will compete with US wheat for demand as we move forward. Most demand news that we're hearing now for the US wheat market is pretty routine, so we could really use some fresh news there to get prices excited again. Russia has made decent winter wheat planting progress but since it is late planted there is concern about whether or not the crop will survive the winter. The December delivery slot is flirting with the seven dollar mark, less than a dime away. If that's your target price keep an eye on that delivery period.
Soybeans are higher as there is talk of China purchasing US soybeans. However, there is no confirmation of that since the USDA is not reporting weekly export sales. Brazilian planting continues to go pretty well as some needed moisture has fallen in areas. Planting has barely gotten roiling in South America and there is already talk of yet another record crop. The market is slowly accepting ideas that US yield is above the most recent USDA estimate of 41.6 bushels per acre...market is thinking it is possibly 43 bpa..some thinking higher.
Like soybeans, the corn market is slowly accepting that US yield is higher than the current USDA estimate of 154 bushels per acre. Some are thinking it could be as high as 160 bushels per acre, which really would not be good for prices. However, US prices have fallen low enough and seem to be attracting increased export demand - hopefully that continues. Harvest is at a pause right now due to recent wet weather but should resume shortly.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
[image003.jpg]
1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
