SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Oct 4/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is mixed, -2-+2, started the session higher but is failing to hold gains as the day progresses (Mpls Dec last trade 7.49 ¾, KC Dec 7.54)
Soybeans are 5-7 lower, market focuses on early yield reports and prices drift lower (Nov last trade 12.82 ½)
Corn is unchanged to ¼ point higher, finding some support from harvest delays, little fresh news otherwise (Dec last trade 4.39 ½)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, soybean oil falling with soybeans this morning, demand remains quiet
Canola is 15-25 cents lower, strong selloff in canola market after yesterday's gains and StatsCan report
The markets remain fairly uncertain as the government shutdown enters day number four. Economic and agricultural data is pretty sparse due to the shutdown as reports continue to go unreleased. Economic markets are very nervous as this continues and the US debt deadline approaches. It is looking more and more like the USDA crop report, scheduled to be released next Friday, will be delayed. Crude prices are on the rise this morning, though, up about 60 cents/barrel as a tropical storm approaches the gulf that could threaten supplies.
StatsCan came out with stronger than expected wheat production estimates which could be part of the reason that we're seeing lower wheat prices this morning. However, the news may not be enough to keep prices lower all day. Strong demand and supply issues popping up here and there around the globe could keep things pretty well supported as we move forward. The Black Sea region is seeing rain delay harvest and new crop seeding. Ukraine seeding is behind last year's pace by about six million acres at 5.4 million seeded, with 17 million expected to go in the ground to wheat. Additionally, Ukraine may halt exports in an attempt to keep domestic supplies. There are also reports of untimely cold weather to Australia that could impact wheat crops there as well.
Soybeans are lower this morning after trading higher the past couple of days. Better than expected early yields combined with a lack of a frost threat to much of the crop, there is little to no reason for prices to trade higher right now. Export demand is thought to be pretty strong but without confirmation we have no way of really knowing if estimates are accurate. Higher crude prices are not lending a helping hand to soybean values right now either.
Corn prices are quietly higher this morning as support continues to be found at current levels. Rising wheat prices could also be lending a helping hand. There are ideas that if Ukraine plants less wheat due to inclement weather that we could see more corn acres. Ukraine has reportedly been doing corn business with China - more corn from Ukraine to China could mean less US corn to China. That is all just speculation at this point, though, and only time will tell what happens. Rainy US weather may delay US harvest slightly but drier weather is called for next week so it is not much of a concern at this point. Argentinean corn planting is behind last year's pace at 8% complete.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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